Dilemma over turning off the tap
The Indus Valley Civilisation was a hydraulic empire, historians argue, in which rulers exercised control over the population by regulating access to water. Four thousand years after Mohenjodaro returned to dust (because of a monster drought, says one theory), the Indus waters are again a subject of hydro-politics. India's strategic threat to extract in water the price of bloodshed in Uri, is high-voltage hydro-diplomacy. Pakistan, of course, might well see the scrapping of the Indus Water Treaty as an act of hydro-terror.
In terms of hydraulic geo-politics, China has the natural advantage, because it controls the Himalayan watershed. Most of Asia's river systems – the Irrawady, Brahmaputra, Indus, Mekong, Yellow and Yangzte – arise in the Tibetan Plateau, giving China the status of uber-hydro-hegemonist (The Ganga, it may be noted, is an exception).
China is an old hand at hydraulic despotism, historians say, because control over rivers was a major concern of the imperial dynasties. Eastern India and Bangladesh, in fact, face the ever-present threat of diversion of the Brahmaputra waters, which would have a devastating impact on the north-east.
Referring to the Zangmu Dam across the Brahmaputra (locally known as the Yarlang Tsangpo) in South-Eastern Tibet, Chicago University academic Kenneth Pomeranz wrote: “The potential for such a project to create conflicts between China and India — and exacerbate existing conflicts over shared waterways between India and Bangaldesh — is gigantic.” While China has been kind enough to share hydrological data with India, there's still no formal arrangement on water-sharing with either India or Bangladesh (the middle and lower riparian states).
If China has its hand on the tap in the northeast, India controls the hydraulic regions to the east and west. The Farakka barrage on the Bhagirathi river, some 10 km from the border, controls the flow of Ganga water into the Hooghly river. Bangladesh's major gripe, as the lower riparian state, is that it gets less water from the Ganga than it should, given that the mighty river flows for 113 km through its territory. Actually, 54 rivers flow from India to Bangladesh, but only the Ganga waters are governed by the 1996 treaty between the two nations.
Hopping across to the west, Pakistan and India share the waters of the Indus river system through a 1960 treaty. India can use only 20 per cent (or 3.6 million acre feet) of the water of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab which flows through its territory. The water is used for irrigation, transport and hydro-power. India controls the three eastern rivers — Beas, Ravi and Sutlej –— while Pakistan has the three western rivers. Pakistan, as the lower riparian state, is pretty much at India's mercy.
The 1960 treaty has stayed in place through IndoPakistan wars and cold wars. If India were now to decide to turn off the tap or even slow the flow, Pakistan would be in serious trouble. The Indus is something of a lifeline. It might then go weeping (another way of exerting hydraulic pressure) to China, with whom it currently enjoys a cozy relationship. And which, of course, controls Tibet, where the Indus originates.
Back in 2003, the Jammu & Kashmir assembly, doubtless prompted by thirsty farmers, passed a resolution asking for a review of the Indus Waters Treaty. So, even if the Uri attack had not raised blood pressures across India, ample grounds exist for a re-look at the water-sharing arrangement.
Lashkar-e-taiba chief Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, damning India for damming the river, once accused the country of water terrorism. He claimed India planned to turn to dust the fields of Pakistan's Punjab, the breadbasket of the country. It’s an unjust accusation, because India actually uses less water than it is entitled to.
Geostrategic analyst Brahma Chellaney strongly advised the Indian government to review the Indus Water Treaty, in order to “fashion water into its most-potent tool of leverage to mend Pakistan’s behaviour. Pakistan has consistently backed away from bilateral agreements with India — from the Simla accord to the commitment not to allow its territory to be used for cross-border terrorism. So why should India honour the IWT?”
Other members of the intelligentsia have warned India against turning off the tap for a variety of reasons, the primary ones being (a) it's not fair, poor old Pakistan (b) India may get a bad rap in the global community (c) China may turn the tables on India (d) India may end up flooding its own cities.
As tempers flare in both camps, it’s time for hydro-therapy — a glass of cool water.
THE 1960 treaty has stayed in place through Indo-Pakistan wars and cold wars. If India were now to decide to turn off the tap or even slow the flow, Pakistan would be in serious trouble. The Indus is something of a lifeline. It might then go weeping (another way of exerting hydraulic pressure) to China, with whom it currently enjoys a cozy relationship. And which, of course, controls Tibet, where the Indus originates.