Will UP farmers heave a sigh of relief?

It may look a little early but one has the premonition that in Punjab, Amarinder Singh is becoming the Chief Minister and in Uttar Pradesh Rahul Gandhi-Akhilesh Yadav combination is heading for a victory. In that event Akhilesh will be the chief minister for the second term. The split in the Samajwadi Party and virtual breakup of the SP has helped Akhilesh and boosted his image sky high.

Heavy polling in the areas where elections have already been held indicate a definite trend. The trend is that there will be no hung house. The era of coalition appears to be over and people are in no mood to have a multi-party government. Over 68 percent of electorate in Uttarakhand has voted and it may touch 70 percent. The heavy percent means a single party rule and installation of preannounced chief ministerial candidate.

Votes were polled in from 15 western districts of UP where 73 assembly seats went to poll and voters in another 11 districts cast their votes for 67 seats.

SP under chief minister Akhilesh has adopted a different political approach in western UP this time. Rather than relying heavily on endorsement by prominent Muslim clerks —like his father Mulayam—Akhilesh has been consciously portraying himself as a leader of aspirational class. The traditional SP political straightjacket limited to Muslim-Yadav consolidation at the heart of the strategy is a realisation that a communally charged atmosphere would also lead to Hindu mobilisation in BJP’s favour and give it the upper hand as in 2014 Lok Sabha poll.

Next month, UP will have a clear mandate. If UP is a state with a population of reportedly more than 214 million, it holding fair and free election in such a large state is a proud moment for democracy which is supposed to be for the people and by the people. One of the key objectives of such a government is to adopt policies that can quickly alleviate hunger and poverty and create an environment where people can enjoy peace and prosperity.

UP is primarily a rural and agri-dominated state. More than 77 per cent of its population resides in rural areas; about 60 per cent of its work force is engaged in agriculture as 2011 census shows. It is blessed with one of the most fertile plains in the world, with almost 80 per cent of its cropped areas having irrigation.

Almost 80 per cent of its cropped area is under food grains with yields that are lower than all India average. During 2005-06 to 2014-15, UP’s agri-GDP growth has been 3.2 per cent per annum, somewhat below the all India average of 3.6 per cent, but almost one one-third of the growth rate experienced by neighbouring Madhya Pradesh (9.7) per cent and less than half of Chhattisgarh (6.6) per cent.

Both BJP and SP manifestos promise goodies for farmers. For example, BJP’s manifesto promises waiver of crop loans for small and marginal farmers, interest-free crop loan and a chief minister’s irrigation fund. SP promises 75 per cent of state budget commitment to farmers and agriculture. Boosting investments in cold chains and expending an interest subsidy to Kisan credit card holders. Congress manifesto pitches for safety nets through MGNREGA and the national food security act, essentially a dole model. Conspicuously, BJP is silent on farmers’ issue.

But all parties seem to have missed the basic problem of UP’s peasantry; if there is one thing about which the farmers are dismayed, it is low prices for their major crops, even though UP is the largest producer of wheat in the country (30 million tonnes MT) in 2016-17. The government procured just 0.8 MT, during 2016-17, compared to 10.6 MT by Punjab, 6.7 MT by Haryana and 4 MT by Madhya Pradesh. With rice too, the situation is only marginally better but way below Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh. As a result, paddy and wheat farmers often sell their crops even at ten, 25 per cent below MSP (minimum support price) and this happens ironically even in Varanasi mandal, which happens to be the constituency of the Prime Minister.

ALL parties seem to have missed the basic problem of UP’s peasantry; if there is one thing about which the farmers are dismayed, it is low prices for their major crops, even though UP is the largest producer of wheat in the country (30 million tonnes) in 2016-17.