BJP has much to gloat about in Maharashtra

The story of the civic elections in Maharashtra whose results were declared on Thursday, has been the pulverisation of the Congress which ruled the most prestigious civic body, the Bombay Municipal Corporation (BMC) until 1995, the spectacular rise of the BJP across the State without the Shiv Sena shoulder to lean on and the restricted appeal of Uddhav Thackeray, whose Sena pipped the BJP in Mumbai but failed to make inroads in the rest of Maharashtra. The NCP of the aging Sharad Pawar and the MNS of Raj Thackeray were marginalised in the battle of the ballot. While the Sena outsmarted the BJP in Mumbai and in adjoining Thane, the BJP won handsomely in Pune, Nagpur (where it has virtually swept its rivals aside) and in smaller civic bodies like Nasik, Amravati, Solapur, Akola, Ulhasnagar and Pimpri-Chinchwad. In all these bodies the Congress and NCP space was appropriated by the BJP. In the last BMC elections in 2012, the Shiv Sena with 75 seats had stolen a march over others. The BJP had managed 31 seats while the Congress had romped home with 52. The MNS had won 27 while the NCP bagged only seven. This time around the picture has changed dramatically.

Even as the results were coming in, Sanjay Nirupam, the Congress’ Mumbai chief offered to quit, but the damage was done. Sanjay’s elevation two and a half years back had ruffled many feathers. He was in constant fighting mode with former chief minister Narayan Rane but was foisted as party leader by Rahul Gandhi. Sanjay Nirupam had a running feud with his predecessor Gurdas Kamath who had even quit Congress a few months back citing differences within. For a rank outsider to be inducted into the party and to win an election is one thing but for him to lead the organisation is far too complex. Rahul indeed erred in sensing the mood of the people. Sanjay is a north Indian and a large chunk of the north-Indian votes which constitutes almost a quarter of the total Mumbai electorate moved away from him to the BJP which was quick to realise that the Congress and the NCP had left behind a huge void especially in urban Maharashtra which it shrewdly filled.

By entrusting its leadership in the State to young, ambitious and ebullient Devendra Fadnavis the BJP hit the right chord. It was Fadnavis who piloted the BJP through the high-decibel campaign and made a success of it. While Uddhav Thackeray was acerbic in his tongue-lashing for the BJP, not sparing even Prime Minister Modi, Fadnavis was circumspect and critical of Uddhav without hitting below the belt. With the seats gap between the Shiv Sena and the BJP in the BMC being so narrow, there would be a natural inclination for the two parties to decide to bury the hatchet and forge a coalition in the Mumbai civic body. But Uddhav Thackeray is sensitive and egoistic and may not want to compromise with the BJP. In that event, it could try to tie up with the MNS, the NCP and some independents. However, any sustained break between the Sena and the BJP could lead to rupture even in the Assembly where 63 members of the Shiv Sena are propping up the BJP’s 122. A complete break there could precipitate a spell of President’s rule followed by fresh elections which is a prospect that neither the Shiv Sena nor the Congress and NCP would relish. So willy-nilly, the alliance between the Shiv Sena and the BJP may well continue as of now. There would indeed be a temptation to go it alone for the BJP in the next Assembly and parliamentary elections, seeing how well it has been doing on its own steam. But in politics, a couple of years is a long time and things could change in the intervening period. The wily Sharad Pawar is acutely aware that the Congress is a fast declining force and there is little to benefit from aligning with it. But he would tie up with the BJP in Maharashtra only if he is assured of dignified treatment. The MNS too, though a diminished entity, is a proud entity.

With no party having secured a majority in the BMC, there would predictably be some jockeying for power. Both the Shiv Sena and the BJP would try to cobble up the required numbers by pulling in smaller parties and independents if the post-poll alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena fails to come through. With its huge budget, the BMC is always a major attraction for parties that have a chance to be in the saddle. Who would get to control the BMC is still shrouded in mystery. The mystery will unravel in the next few days as the parties position themselves.