BJP crosses hurdle in President’s poll

The Bharatiya Janata Party has now gained a clear edge in getting its candidate elected as the next President of India to succeed Pranab Mukherjee completing his 5-year term on July 25.

Its minority position in the Rajya Sabha, however, does not change despite the decisive victory in the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand as the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha from these states are not slated before April next year.

The ruling party is, however, better placed in the electoral college for the presidential election as it comprises members of both the Houses of Parliament and the elected members of 31 Assemblies, including Delhi and Puducherry.

It is already in power on its own in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Assam and in partnership with other parties in Jammu and Kashmir and Andhra Pradesh. Adding two more states of UP and Uttarakhand puts it in a very comfortable position to nominate own candidate for the President’s election.

Though the party will gain also from Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, its victory in UP is significant since the MLAs of UP carry the maximum value of votes in the presidential election given to any state. The value of vote of the MLA is equivalent to the state’s population divided by the number of elected MLAs and divided again by 1,000. The UP MLAs’ vote value is the highest since Uttar Pradesh has 127 million population as per the 2011 Census.

BJP sources said the party would prefer one from within the party to be the next President, it may offer the post of the vice-president falling vacant a month later due to Hamid Ansari completing his second 5year term to one of the allies or pick up one from the South. In 2002, the party had got elected its former Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat as the vice-president.

As regards the BJP’s strength in the Rajya Sabha, it won’t be able to overtake the Congress as the single largest party in the current year itself, though not acquiring the majority until towards the end of its 5-year term in 2019. The Congress has 59 seats now as against the BJP’’s 56.

Only 10 seats are falling vacant this year and that may increase the BJP’s strength to 57 as against the Congress dipping to 58. The first to retire this year towards July end is Goa’s Congress member Shantaram Naik who is bound to be replaced by the BJP candidate because of the party succeeding in forming the government.

Only nine other seats fall vacant in August - six in West Bengal and three in Gujarat. Only Trinamul Congress will increase its strength from West Bengal while there may be no difference in the CongressBJP ratio in Gujarat as more or less the same will continue. Those retiring in Gujarat are textile minister Smriti Irani and Dilipbhai Pandya of BJP and Congress President’s political secretary Ahmed Patel.

The next biennial election will be in Delhi in January 2018 when the ruling AAP is bound to make its first entry winning all three seats that are now with the Congress, by its general secretary Janardan Dwivedi, Dr Karan Singh and Parvez Hashmi.

The ruling party is better placed in the electoral college for the presidential election as it comprises members of both the Houses of Parliament and the elected members of 31 Assemblies