Congress can cash in on ‘credible face’
The current political map of India closely resembles that of the pre-Mandal era, with one party holding sway over most of the country. The NDA is in power at the Centre and in 14 states, with all of central India and most of the west, north and north-east coloured saffron, collectively representing close to 60 per cent of India's population. The principle opposition party, the Congress, is in power in six states, all of which put together account for some 8 per cent of the total population.
In 37 years, the BJP has gone from zero to becoming the national consensus, at the expense of the Congress and the socialists. The Grand Old Party has been in reverse gear for over a quarter century and is currently at an all-time low, prompting some analysts to write off its hopes for a revival. Dynasty is regarded as a liability, because it foils the possibility of organisational reform. Analysts also believe the party needs to redefine itself and explain who and what it stands for, with the BJP having coopted its core agendas of poverty alleviation and economic reform.
Credit for its decisive victory in Punjab is laid, quite rightly, at the door of Captain Amarinder Singh. Reluctantly anointed as chief ministerial candidate by the central leadership, he inducted new and popular faces and campaigned aggressively on the good governance plank. The Aam Aadmi Party, initially the frontrunner in a state sick and tired of a corrupt regime, failed to inspire confidence in its administrative abilities.
The lesson for the Congress is clear. Whether or not it jettisons the Family, the central leadership must invest in regional leaders. Power, after all, lies in the states. In the past, it boasted a galaxy of state satraps, who were grassroots leaders rather than nominees of the centre: Sharad Pawar, YSR Rajashekhar Reddy, Digvijay Singh, Madhav Sinh Solanki, D Devraja Urs, P A Sangma and H D Joshi come to mind. The steady erosion of state leadership has hollowed out the Centre. The charisma of the Family has faded over time, making it evident that while it can keep the party together, it cannot win elections.
As for redefining itself, the main plank of the Congress has always been inclusion. As the party of the Centre-left, it presented itself as an overarching umbrella accommodating all manner of identities. In practice, however, it fell prey to liberal dogma and ended up promoting some interest groups at the cost of others and thereby distancing itself from voters on the basis of caste and creed. The vote-banks it had taken for granted gradually strayed to other, greener pastures.
Congress spokespersons – not all of whom are members of the party – even now accuse the BJP of polarising voters, “playing the Hindutva card” and ignoring the interests of minorities. Perhaps they lack the imagination to grasp that the implicit perception of national interest as subservient to those of “deprived” groups has proved counter-productive.
The future of the party may well depend on whether it abandons double-speak and projects itself as truly inclusive and open to the aspirations of all, not just certain sections. What if the Congress were to free itself of liberal intellectuals and pitch strongly for a Uniform Civil Code, coopting the BJP agenda rather than the other way around?
Vote percentages are elastic, as the recent assembly elections have proved. The Congress has the ability to bounce back, at least in some states. The forthcoming assembly elections in Gujarat and Rajasthan present an opportunity and the municipal elections in Delhi next month could be a solid starting point, because it has what the BJP lacks: a credible face. Ajay Maken, left to himself, could lead the party to a creditable showing in the MCD elections. Having decimated the AAP in Punjab, it can hope to do so in Delhi, but Congress leaders must free themselves of the dependency syndrome and look to the party workers, rather than to the Family.
A footnote: as the Congress struggles to come up with a new playbook, the BJP could draw a lesson or two. In the 1990s, the BJP under L K Advani built up a strong cadre of second-rung and state leaders, one of whom went on to become Prime Minister. After sweeping the 2014 general elections, it has relied heavily on the charisma of PM Narendra Modi to secure state elections. With no natural choice of chief minister, the central leadership tends to step in to nominate a candidate. If the BJP is to produce another Modi, it must create leaders, not just followers.