Monsoon to hit five days ahead, so expect rains by end-May

Here’s some good news: the humid sultry days and nights may soon come to an end. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday heralded the arrival of the much-awaited monsson ahead of its schedule: weathermen said that rains are likely to hit Andaman and Nicobar Islands by May 15 and then move inwards towards Kerala and beyond.

Key equity indices — the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty — closed at new highs on Wednesday on reports that the government's weather forecaster has predicted healthy monsoon rains. The boost in market sentiments came after news reports quoted a top India Meteorological Department (IMD) official forecasting a higher rainfall than previously forecast as the El Nino weather condition had eased. Earlier, the IMD had predicted 96 per cent of the annual average of rains.

The IMD’s assessment is based on the movement of the winds. A.K. Srivastava, senior scientist at Pune’s IMD, said, “Present features indicate that conditions are becoming favourable for the advance of the south-west monsoon over South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands by May 15.”

“There have been cross equatorial flow of wind from south-west to west for the last seven to eight days. Strong winds and deep clouds are also present. Hence we expect that there will be rains in Andaman and Nicobar by May 15,” Srivastava said, adding, “But we cannot predict just yet when the monsoon will reach Kerala and move towards other parts of the country, including Maharashtra.” Generally the south-west monsoon hits Andaman by May 20 every year but this year.

In its first long-range forecast released in April, IMD had forecast monsoon this year to be normal at 96% of the long-period average. IMD classifies rainfall between 96% and 104% of long-period average of 89 cm as normal.

Southwest monsoon is crucial for agriculture as about two-thirds of the total arable land depends on the Jun-Sep rains for irrigation.