THE BJP SWAY CONTINUES IN MAHARASHTRA

“Nothing succeeds like success", it is said. If this true, it is also true that the bang of success also comes with a sign of caution. Looking at the three-year triumph of Prime Minister Narendra Modi that was celebrated with more happiness by workers of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) due to the party's mammoth victory in the newly formed Panvel City Municipal Corporation and sizable success in Bhiwandi and Malegaon, it sends a signal loud and clear that while on the one hand, the party is on a steep assent, on the other hand, the potential threat from the Congress is yet alive. The party that won Nasik and Pune Municipal elections with huge margin and posed a serious threat to the Shiv Sena just a couple of month ago, faced a serious challenge in Bhiwandi and Malegaon. It's true, both the cities have a large number of Muslim voters and both are known for Powerloom industry to a large extends. It was thus, very difficult for the BJP to expect a landslide success there. As an experiment, the BJP fielded more than half number of candidates from the minority community. However, this gamble did not work and the party finished poor third in these cities.

This is contrary to the expectations of the party mainly because it had registered a massive success in Uttar Pradesh State Assembly elections, just three months ago without fielding even a single Muslim candidate in the state, where Muslim population is over 20 per cent. The message of the story is that the UP model need not always be a 'national model'. Each state and region has different considerations and combinations those prove to be decisive in any situation. The formula that worked in UP, did not work in Maharashtra's semi-urban towns.

Leaving that apart, the show that the BJP put up in Bhiwandi and Malegaon is worth to be applauded. This is because till very recently, these two towns were not even remotely present on BJP's areas of influence. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP did not have candidate to contest from Bhiwandi Constituency. It was forced to field Kapil Patil, a last minute entry from Congress to the BJP. Patil won with a handsome margin, thanks to the nation-wide Modi wave. However, the party does not have any ground network. Passing through this adversity, the BJP leadership forged an alliance with local forces to take on the Congress that has been ruling the city corporation for decades. In this situation, the BJP won a sizable number of seats and increased its areas of influence. In Malegaon, the BJP waged a hopeless fight in the communal tension torn city. To ease the situation it fielded Muslim candidates in Minority dominant areas. However, those candidates failed to win the trust and confidence of the electorate.

One more reason for the BJP failing to win these two towns is a palpable absence of minority leaders within the party fold to address the minorities. The voters of Bhiwandi and Malegaon perhaps did not trust the main-line BJP leaders. Their language and behavioral pattern could not win the hearts of the people. Instead, they continued to trust the ageold Congress regime. If this situation continues for another two years, it would be difficult if not impossible for the BJP to retain its Bhiwandi Lok Sabha seat in absence of repetition of Modi Wave.

The situation in Panvel, a developing city on the outskirt of Navi Mumbai is entirely different. The new township that emerged only a decade ago was accorded the status of Municipal Corporation only last year. The new Municipal Corporation encompasses the entire area of the old Panvel Municipal Council and a few villages in the vicinity. This was the first election of the Panvel City Municipal Corporation and the BJP came out with flying colours. The credit of the handsome victory largely goes to the systematic planning of the campaign and also to the Ramshet Thakur-Prashant Thakur duo, who are new entrants in the BJP. Ramshet, middle-level road construction contractor from the Raigad district grabbed lime-light when he won the Lok Sabha election twice on the ticket of the Peasants and Workers Party, a local force. However, later he left the party and joined the Congress. His son Prashant won the Panvel Assembly seat as Congress Candidate in 2009. After 2914 Lok Sabha polls, Thakurs realized the change of the direction of the wind and they joined the BJP. Now Prashant won 2014 Assembly seat as BJP nominee. The BJP had handed over the entire responsibility of the Panvel Municipal Corporation elections to Prashant, who worked hard and ensured that the party returns 51 out of 78 seats to grab the power. The Congress that ruled the erstwhile Panvel Municipal Council was reduced to only two seats and the local district giants PWP could win 23 seats. This is a rude shock to the Congress and the local PWP.

Apart from the splendid win the BJP, another salient feature of the Panvel verdict is the historical defeat of the Shiv Sena in this election. The Sena that contested the elections in alliance with Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana drew blank. This is because of absence of credible leadership and wrong decision making process. The Sena had entrusted the responsibility of the campaign in Maharashtra Minister Eknath Shinde and a local TV Star Adesh Bandekar, who also heads the film unit of the party. Both of them could not influence voters and thus failed the party to make any impact on the election. This is perhaps because Shinde, a stalwart from Thane has little knowledge of Raigad district and Bandekar has no clue of political games.

The substance of the story is that the sway of the BJP continues over the urban, semi-urban and rural population of the state. However, the Congress is waiting in the wings to find the opportunity to zoom in the central stage.