MONSOON TO BE BETTER, SAYS MET

NEW DELHI: The monsoon is likely to be better than earlier expected, Met department on Tuesday said. IMD chief K J Ramesh said the revision to 98% precipitation of the Long Period Average was done because of reduced chances of occurrence of an El-Nino.

India will receive 98 per cent rainfall during this monsoon between June to September with an error estimate of four per cent, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

Earlier on April 18, based on then available weather patterns the IMD had forecast a normal monsoon with average rainfall of around 96 per cent on the whole, with an error estimation of plus-minus five per cent.

“The final forecast based on different models suggests that the season’s rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA),” M. Mahapatrta, IMD scientist, told IANS.

The IMD in its forecast said that the long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 was 89 cm.

Individual prediction based over broad geographical areas suggest that central India, that includes Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, will get 100 per cent of the LPA.

“The season rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of LPA over northwest India, 100 per cent of LPA over central India, 99 per cent of LPA over south peninsula, and 96 per cent of LPA over northeast India, all with a model error of plus-minus eight per cent,” the IMD said.

Under northwest India fall Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajashtan.

Under south peninsula fall Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, the Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Under northeast India come Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh.

“Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96 per cent of its LPA during July and 99 per cent during August both with a model error of plus-minus nine per cent,” the IMD said.

However, the experimental forecast based on one of the models – Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS)– suggests that the monsoon rainfall during 2017 would average 100 per cent over the country as a whole and was likely to be with an error estimation of plus-minus five per cent.

According to the weatherman, below 90 per cent rainfall is considered deficient and at 95 per cent, it is considered below normal.

A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon and between 105 and 110 per cent above normal.