May loses majority, soft Brexit looks possible
AS Tory is the single largest party and May is likely to form a minority government with the like-minded DUP, it will not be the ‘strong and stable’ government that she had said the country needed when she called the vote in April. A hung verdict has thro
British Prime Minister Theresa May wanted a decisive majority for her government to improve her negotiation position on Brexit. This was the major reason for calling a snap poll, given her small majority of 17 seats in the previous Parliament. But the outcome of June 8 elections has stunned May who, in her quest for a decisive mandate, also squandered the advantage of a working majority in the earlier Parliament. The Conservative Party won only 318 seats – eight short of simple majority – while the Labour Party emerged strong gaining 29 seats, improving its tally to 262 seats.
Starting as a favourite to win a landslide victory with over 20-points lead and ending up losing the majority is surely not political acumen. If it was a gamble that went horribly wrong, it not only speaks poorly of the Tory leader’s lack of political insight but also her inability to read voters’ minds. Brexit referendum was a very close verdict – 52 per cent for ‘Leave’ and 48 per cent for ‘Remain’. It was a fair indication of what the Britons wanted after the referendum vote just under a year ago: political stability and clarity on Brexit negotiations, not slogans and certainly not another election.
Those who voted to leave EU had many ideas of Brexit which has enormous implications on UK’s future. May’s position on Brexit has been nothing but a ‘hard Brexit’: cap on immigration and opting out of customs union and single market membership. Immigration is directly linked to free movement of goods and services between member countries of European Union (EU). But opting out of single market membership and customs union will have disastrous implications on British trade in goods and services with EU. According to the World Bank, if Britain were to trade with EU on WTO terms, then British trade in goods with EU will halve and trade in services will fall by 60 per cent. It is this realisation of selfharm that has been a cause of concern for Britons, including many of those who voted for Brexit.
Termed as one-issue election by May who projected herself as the only leader capable of leading Britain through the divorce from EU, it went much beyond Brexit – healthcare (NHS), pensions, jobs, housing crisis, education and falling living standards – though concerns about a hard Brexit had an impact on the election’s outcome. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, unfairly slammed by the right-wing media as ‘weak and fumbling’ since he became leader of the centre-left party two years ago, gauged correctly voters’ disenchantment with the ruling party’s policies and worked his campaign in a way that connected well with people. His much-maligned hard-left image, a distinct departure from Tony Blair’s middle path of engaging the market and metropolitan values, helped him connect with voters.
If it was an unexpected election, it was also an unwanted one. Having failed to secure majority for her party after her gamble for an early election backfired badly, May’s position as leader is bound to come under pressure. The hung verdict has not only dented her leadership, both personally and politically, but dissenting Tory voices have blamed the party’s debacle on the badly received Conservative manifesto – described by former chancellor George Osborne as ‘one of the worst manifestos in history’ – which lacked sweeteners to appeal to voters. Turning the election into a presidential-style contest by putting her ‘strong and stable’ leadership at the centre was a big blunder.
Hung parliament was only a small possibility before the poll. It is the only reality now. Hence coalition government is the only option left. Despite calls for her to step down as Prime Minister from outside and within her own party, May has struck a deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party (DUP) for forming a minority government which, according to reports, will be a ‘confidence and supply arrangement’, rather than a formal coalition government. As Tory is the single largest party and May is likely to form a minority government with the like-minded DUP, it will not be the ‘strong and stable’ government that she had said the country needed when she called the vote in April. A hung verdict has thrown open uncertainty and indecision over the looming challenge of Brexit. This is likely to affect her authority and weaken her position at the negotiation table with EU. Brexit negotiations are set to begin later this month.
As the poll verdict is divided, it will have impact on governance, political stability and economy. After the election results came in, the pound fell to its seven-week low. Inflation is at three-year high, wages are falling and cost of living rising. There is no end to austerity that came with the financial crisis of 2007; it is likely to get even harder. But the more important challenge for the government is Brexit negotiation that the country will attempt for the first time after being part of EU for more than 50 years. Brexit involves disengaging with EU by dismantling political and economic arrangement that has brought peace and prosperity to Britain. It is a complex arrangement that requires taking apart hundreds of laws and rules, both financial and legal.
Notwithstanding her earlier tough position on migration, customs union and single market membership, fractious verdict will compel May to rethink and rework her Brexit plan and strategy. She will probably have to come down from her earlier position of a hard Brexit. She may also be compelled to keep the single market membership intact and accept status quo on migration. This makes the option of a soft Brexit a fair possibility. A divided House of Commons means lack of consensus on key issues. This might even throw up a possibility of another election or a second referendum on Brexit. There is no clarity on whether Brexit process can be reversed as UK has already informed EU council that it is leaving and Article 50 has been triggered. But in case of a U-turn, European Parliament president Antonio Tajani has said that UK could be welcomed back into EU fold if the UK government wants. That’s a lot of uncertainty and difficult possibilities.