Trump wooed, but still a long way to go

While civility and protocol dictated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump should seem to foster IndoUS relations, the body language of the two world leaders at their first meeting since Trump took office indicated that the bonhomie seen between them was not just for the cameras. Indeed, there was an air of genuineness about it which put into the shade some earlier points of disagreement. Evidently, Modi succeeded in establishing a cordial relationship with Trump. On his part he was focused on establishing a preliminary rapport rather than raking up unpalatable issues which could sour the pitch with a man who is known to speak his mind if he dislikes something. There was speculation on whether Modi would give a hug to Trump to signal closeness considering that Trump is known to abhor any open show of warmth. That Modi carried it off was evidently a good sign. As expected, this was a Modi visit that was not high on tangible gains to either side. But that it set the tone for a sustained relationship that would not derail the process of friendliness that was established during Barack Obama’s time was a big plus.

To India’s relish,Trump took on the issue of terrorism head-on in the joint statement issued by the two leaders at the end of the visit. His stress that the US and India would “destroy radical Islamic terrorism” (though he did not mention Pakistan by name) was significant indeed. The joint statement devoted considerable attention to the issue of terrorism, with the notable new announcement of “a new consultation mechanism on domestic and international terrorist designations listing proposals.” The language on Pakistan’s culpability for the use of its territory by militant groups and terrorists was sharp. The joint statement said that the leaders called on Pakistan to ensure that its territory was not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries. They further called on Pakistan to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai, Pathankot, and other cross-border terrorist attacks perpetrated by Pakistanbased groups. The joint statement named Pakistan based terror groups – Hizbul-Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-eTayyiba, D-Company, ‘and their affiliates’ – a ‘global scourge’. By naming Syed Salahuddin as a global terrorist the US met a major expectation of India. Salahuddin has been a constant threat to India since early 1990s first as a commander in Hizbul Mujahideen, then as its commander in chief, and now as the chief of United Jehad Council, an umbrella body of anti-India terror organisations.

On the economic plane, Trump was blunt when he emphasized that it was important that barriers be removed to the export of U.S. goods into Indian markets, but recognized that the US needed to reduce its trade deficit with India. He expressed his pleasure at a “recent order of 100 new American planes” by Air India and highlighted ongoing negotiations for a deal with India for the sale of U.S. natural gas. He also was happy that the deal for purchase of 22 unmanned Drone aircraft by India for surveillance of international waters had been signed on this Modi visit. At the strategic level, Trump acknowledged that there was discussion of the “security partnership” between the two countries, which he described as “incredibly important” but perhaps because of Chinese sensitivity, there was no elaboration of precisely how the tie-up would proceed. There was no direct reference to the South China Sea or China but the joint statement called on “all nations to resolve territorial and maritime disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law,” which was a hint to China.

Even on the contentious issue of the US walking out of the climate change deal there was a conscious Indian effort not to ruffle feathers since Trump is sensitive to it. India did not labour the point that it would continue to uphold the spirit of the Paris accord, choosing instead to keep mum on it. The issue of visa for Indian IT professionals and the sporadic incidents of ‘hate crimes’ against Indian immigrants did not figure in the joint statement. India’s bid for a permanent seat on the US Security Council and its membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group were both virtually passed over though they were important from India’s point of view. India would have to wait until more substantive talks are held between the two countries. From the perspective of what was left out, Modi’s talks with Trump cannot be deemed to have been a glorious success. The whole emphasis was to find common ground and to move on in a positive vein. That was a sound strategy given the US President’s ‘America First’ policy and the imperative need to test the waters after Trump assumed power. Yet, we cannot gloat overmuch on US concessions on terror. For now this is fine but in the longer run India would need to achieve greater US acceptance on other key Indian issues.