Lalu-Nitish break-up only a matter of time

With each passing day, the ‘mahagatbandhan’ or grand alliance in Bihar is hurtling closer and closer to a split with the Janata Dal (United) increasingly getting disenchanted with its alliance partner the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and distancing itself from it. The spate of allegations against RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav and his family and the extensive raids on them by the income-tax department and enforcement directorate have dented the credibility of the RJD leadership and made Nitish Kumar and his men wary of associating with them beyond a point. Nitish expects the chargesheets against Lalu’s sons –Bihar deputy chief minister Tejash Prasad Yadav and Health Minister Tej Pratap – to be filed in the next few days and reckons that the breaking point will come then, when he demands that they quit the cabinet while the proceedings against them for land grabbing and corruption are completed and a judgment given by the court. Indeed, shrewd as Nitish is, he does not want to be seen as rocking the boat except when there is provocation on principles. The Congress which is a relatively small player has been thrown into RJD’s lap since Nitish spurned its overtures to support former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar in the presidential elections.

With Nitish’s protégé and JD (U) general secretary K.C. Tyagi saying in a mood of nostalgia that they were far more comfortable with the BJP during their 17-year partnership than they are today with Lalu’s JD (U), it is clear that there is little love lost between Nitish and Lalu and it is only a matter of time before the two break up. The two leaders had been poles apart before they formed an alliance to fight the last Assembly polls which they then managed to virtually sweep, and theirs was clearly only a marriage of convenience. Their strained relations must therefore come as no surprise. Nitish had broken ranks with the BJP primarily because of his opposition to Modi as the party’s prime ministerial candidate in 2014 but today his equation with Modi has undergone a sea change. Actually, Nitish himself had entertained ambitions of donning the prime ministerial mantle and was piqued that Modi was coming in the way. Today, the two leaders have cosied up to each other—first by sharing the dais at a function in Patna and then Modi inviting Nitish to a dinner meeting with the Mauritius prime minister where Modi and Nitish exchanged notes and pleasant vibes. Nitish has been appreciative of Modi and supported the Centre even on the demonetization move which the rest of the opposition criticized sharply.

As BJP Bihar chief Sushil Modi digs up more and more dirt on Lalu and his family with a surfeit of benami land deals entered into by them and the enforcement agencies close in, Nitish, who has had a clean image, is finding Lalu and the RJD a liability to team up with. The question on everyone’s lips in Bihar is ‘when will the breaking point come between Lalu and Nitish.’