Middle ground awaits BJP’s occupation
It was entirely predictable that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthright condemnation on Thursday morning of the high-handedness in the name of cow protection would leave his critics both dissatisfied and jubilant. The “too little, too late” retort and the demand that it must translate on the ground are predictable responses from those who feel that they should not rest until the 2019 general election produces a verdict that is to their liking.
That the Prime Minister should perhaps have responded before the lynching-phobia went out of hand is worth stressing. Maybe it was his preoccupation with the visit to the United States and with the unveiling of the GST that delayed the response. Whatever the reality, it is a fact that the lynching scare and the contrived fear of emerging mob rule did vitiate the atmosphere and, more important, threatened to divert attention from the more constructive facets of the government’s work.
However, there is a political cost to the delay. By choosing to intervene in the latest round of the beef-lynching controversy, Modi unwittingly linked the killing of a Muslim boy in a train compartment in Haryana with the beef issue. This was unfortunate because while this was undeniably a hate crime, its connection with beef is nonexistent.
More significant is the other unintended consequence. Since Modi’s Sabarmati Ashram speech happened the morning after the ‘Not in my name’ protests in some cities, it was interpreted by the liberals and media activists as a resounding victory and proof of their impact. Consequently, the social media is full of triumphalist assertions suggesting that Modi was on the retreat and this is the time to drive home the advantage on other fronts. What Modi’s unwavering critics hoped would happen after demonetisation, the Uttar Pradesh election and, in a lesser way, the Aadhaar petition in the Supreme Court, has, in their eyes, happened after the Sabarmati Ashram speech. The protestors had demanded the PM break his silence. He did on Thursday morning. And that has been interpreted as an unqualified victory and a signal to redouble the anti-Modi activism.
The impact of this perceived triumph is difficult to anticipate in its entirety. For a start, far from accepting Modi as a responsive PM, his critics will now go out of their way to paint the saffron dispensation as categorically fascist. This is likely to be picked up by the foreign media which needed only the smallest of encouragement to equate Modi’s government with authoritarian regimes in, say, Turkey and Russia. I don’t want to sound conspiratorial, but a connection can be drawn between the fresh round of criticism of demonetisation—which had stopped after the UP election verdict—and the unveiling of GST. Indeed, we are likely to witness a huge fuss over the inevitable teething problems of GST. We are also likely to see the government being painted as anti-business.
The impact on formal politics is likely to be more curious. It is clear, for example, that while the Congress paid nominal lip service to the protests against the beef ban, it shied away from active involvement. This may have been due to either the absence of Rahul Gandhi from the battlefield or an unwillingness to do anything that added to the impression that the party is only concerned with ‘minority’ interests. Certainly, the public slaughter of a cow by Congress activists in Kerala left the party very red-faced.
The anti-lynching and anti-beef ban outcry in the country has mainly been the handiwork of individuals with a social media presence, activist journalists and some NGOs. They may be part of the larger Left-liberal ecosystem that has organic links with the Congress but they have hitherto shied away from formal political mobilisation. In the aftermath of their perceived success in getting Modi to respond, this fringe is certain to try and influence the course of opposition politics. On its part, parties such as the Congress may be pressured into establishing more formal links with the babalog fringe, perhaps even using them as a more acceptable face of an anti-Modi stir.
If these links are formalised, as I believe they will be in the coming months, the nature of the anti-Modi coalition may undergo a shift. First, there is likely to be greater links forged between the fringe and business groups miffed by the end of cronyism. Consequently, opposition movements and anti-Modi media platforms are likely to be better funded. Secondly, we are likely to see many more connections developing between the fringe, the Congress and ‘minority’ organisations.
Finally, the anti-Modi fringe is itself a collection of disparate elements comprising sanctimonious liberals, socialites that are aesthetically repelled by the BJP, far-Left activists and even those who have no problems in allowing the Kashmir Valley to secede from India. As an electoral force it epitomises everything that is non-saleable to Middle India, a reason why the Congress has kept it at an arm’s length. If this fringe starts intervening in a more organised fashion in the public discourse and the BJP keeps some of its more irresponsible elements in firm check, we may see the identification of the BJP with the majority community solidify. Amit Shah for one will not mind a situation whereby the opposition to Modi becomes more responsive to liberal impulses, minority interests and even separatists. There is a middle ground in politics awaiting occupation and the BJP would be wise to move in.
The gau rakshaks have embarrassed Modi but they have also created new political opportunities for him.
THE anti-lynching and anti-beef ban outcry in the country has mainly been the handiwork of individuals with a social media presence, activist journalists and some NGOs. In the aftermath of their perceived success in getting Modi to respond, this fringe is certain to try and influence the course of opposition politics. On its part, parties such as the Congress may be pressured into establishing more formal links with the babalog fringe, perhaps even using them as a more acceptable face of an anti-Modi stir.