Hidden friends of BJP in Opposition ranks

In the presidential poll victory of NDA nominee Ram Nath Kovind there are pointers to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections which can hardly be missed. The most significant of these is that the committed support to him was exceeded by over 115 votes, of which more than 30 were of members of Parliament. Apart from 18 NDA constituents, several regional parties including Janata Dal (United), Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, YSR Congress, AIADMK, BJD voted for the BJP nominee. Then there was the significant factor of cross voting which worked to the ruling dispensation’s benefit. Since voting in the presidential election is by secret ballot there is no way of knowing which specific MPs and legislators cross-voted but the maximum benefit of cross voting was derived in Maharashtra where the BJP’s known votes were exceeded by 13. Kovind should have got 185 votes—122 of BJP and 63 of Shiv Sena –plus votes of other alliance partners, but he got 208. Evidently, either some Congress legislators or NCP ones or of both parties voted for Kovind. This should be a cause of worry to the Shiv Sena because it shows that if it flexes its muscles and leaves the coalition in Maharashtra, BJP could still command a majority with the numbers that it garnered in the presidential poll. With the Shiv Sena’s heavy dependence on the BJP in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation the Sena can indeed ill afford to rub the BJP on the wrong side with the threat to bring down the BJP-led government. That would be a major psychological boost for the BJP which has been embarrassed time and again by Shiv Sena’s criticism of the party’s policies and standpoint. Another state where there was cross-voting was Gujarat with at least eight Congress legislators having voted for Kovind. Of late, former chief minister Shankarsinh Vaghela who had defected to the Congress from the BJP many years ago is on the warpath and it is suspected that his men have voted for Kovind. That on Friday he announced that he has been expelled from the Congress which he will never rejoin was indicative of that. In Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and his brother Shivpal Yadav had declared before the voting that they would vote for Kovind despite former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav of SP having decided to go with the opposition.

Kovind’s challenger Meira Kumar who was supported by 17 parties that made up the opposition can draw some solace from the fact that she won the most votes ever by an opposition nominee. With BSP supremo Mayawati having quit the Rajya Sabha recently and in principle decided to contest as a nominee of her party supported by the Samajwadi party and the Congress in Phulpur in U.P. the Opposition is set to test its combined strength against the BJP with 2019 in mind. But whatever may be the outcome in the by-election, the BJP is on a strong footing nationally and can hardly be wished away.