Maharashtra politics: Sitting on a volcano!

While on one hand, the former Chief Minister and a strongman of Konkan Region, Narayan Rane stirred hornet's nest in the political corridors of Maharashtra by announcing the launch of his new political outfit, 'Maharashtra Swabhimani Paksha', on the other hand, another 'ever-angry man' in Maharashtra politics, Raj Thackeray has once again fired salvos against the BJP Government and threatened to launch another agitation (not a non-violent) if his demands are not met immediately. Raj who had been mostly silent since he faced humiliating defeat after defeat since 2014 Lok Sabha elections, seems to have decided to take on the top leadership of the BJP to keep his presence felt. His march to Western Railway Head office last will was the indication that Raj is trying to come back in action, a year-and-half before the next general elections in 2019. Many political watchers and media-persons had started discounting Raj and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena as a spent force. However, looking at the response that Raj generated for the Morcha and the language that he used in his speech makes it amply clear that Raj, though down is certainly not out. That must be the cause of concern for the BJP and also the Shiv Sena.

RAJ RETURNS TO ACTION

If Raj returns to action in the next three months, he would make a visible impact on the election prospects of 2019 State Assembly elections. The immediate casualty would naturally be the Shiv Sena as the vote bank of the two parties is almost the same. It only means in the absence of a Tsunami wave like in 2014, Raj will eat in to the vote share of the Shiv Sena. That would be beneficial to the BJP but fatal for the Sena. Will the Sena Party Chief Uddhav Thackeray allow the situation to reach such a boiling point? The answer to this question would resolve many doubts in the minds of the voters and political pundits. At the same time another story that is brewing in the political hot -pot is Rane's outburst against Uddhav and his decision to launch his own party. Now he has decided to be a part of the NDA of which the BJP is the captain. There no secret that Rane jumped out of the Congress camp to grab ministerial berth once again. The question that has remained unanswered yet is when will be invited to take oath of the ministerial seat and what portfolio would be allotted to him. Once that is decided then the real war would set off. Rane also intends to ensure safe future of his two sons, Nilesh and Nitesh. Will he be successful in achieving these goals in near future? The answer to this question would decide the course of not only his politics but also the course of the state politics, as Rane, for all said and done, remains a force to reckon with at least in the Konkan Region. Apart from the possible impact on the poll scenario of 2019, Raj's new initiative and Rane's moves would have direct and long-term impact on the structure and working of Devendra Fadnavis Government also. While Fadnavis would have to immediately decide whether to absorb Rane in his Government or not. If yes, another moot question would be which department could be entrusted to him. Off course, Rane is eyeing for the all-powerful Revenue Department, presently held by trusted man of the BJP HighCommand Chandrakant Patil. Will Fadnavis destabilise Chandrakant Dada to accommodate Rane who is yet to prove his strength and utility to the BJP? Other choice that Fadnavis has is to allocate departments like Public Works or Agriculture to the new party entrant. The question, however, is will Rane accept these department, particularly when he is joining the government with such a fanfare? Rane had the powerful Industries Department when he was in the Congress-NCP Government earlier. However, now Industries Department is with Subhash Desai of Shiv Sena. Thus that op tion is not available for Fadnavis.

IN SHORT, MAHARASHTRA'S POLITICS is sitting on the top of a volcano which, it is feared, can burst any time. Rane has posed the threat by joining the NDA. His entry in to the alliance has weakened the alliance rather than strengthening it.To worsen the situation, Raj's recent advances pose a serious threat to both the BJP and the Sena. Because political commentators believe that Raj is an 'unguided missile' and no one knows where would it land and how much damage it can cause and to whom?

AN AXE TO GRIND

Another issue that Fadnavis needs to resolve immediately is that the Shiv Sena, the party that has reasonably uneasy relationship with the BJP will have an axe to grind if Rane comes to the State Cabinet as a Senior Minister. Rane began his political career in the Sena and rose up to the post of the Chief Minister. His exit from the party has not gone well with Sena's rank and file. The elevation of Rane as a Minister in Fadnavis Government would mean entry of another 'rival' in the government. Will the Sena tolerate Rane's existence in the Government? Off course, the Sena is left with very little choice. The only option left to the Sena leadership is to quit the government and sit on the Opposition Benches. But there is a reported fear that the party's rank and file would break in case the Sena leaves power. There were rumours that Party Chief Uddhav Thackeray would announce the party's decision to part with the Government. However, at the last minute, he decided to continue with the Government. It was the 'tight rope walk' for him that he performed reasonably well. Now it would be interesting to watch Sena's future line of action. Will it take the 'people's agitation' to streets or would it be tamed and made quiet? In short, Maharashtra's politics is sitting on the top of a volcano that is feared to burst any time. Rane has posed the threat by joining the NDA. His entry in to the alliance has weakened the alliance rather than strengthening it. To worsen the situation for the BJP and more for the Sena, Raj's recent advances have posed a serious threat to both the BJP and the Sena. Because political commentators believe that Raj is an 'unguided missile' and no one knows where would it land and how much damage it can cause and to whom? The author is a political analyst and former member of Parliament.