GUJ: WAR OF NERVES, BATTLE LINES DRAWN!

Battle-lines are drawn.., soldiers are up in arms.., bugles are repeatedly blown loudly…, and war slogans rose forcefully..! This is not the description of war-torn border areas but of the State of Gujarat, that would be facing elections for its State Assembly in December this year. It would be a bitter war between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and its Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on one hand and the Yuvaraj of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi who is making a frantic effort to survive in the political arena on the other. For Modi, it’s a test to prove his supremacy on his home turf and thus he would be making all efforts to win the battle handsomely. It is supremely unlikely that the Rahul will win Gujarat. However, retaining the state for the BJP will not be enough for Modi. He needs to better his previous 2012 election performance of gaining 116 seats to prove that his sway continues over the Gujarati masses despite the fact that he is away from 'his people' for the last three-and-half years. Therefore Modi has taken the battle of Gujarat too seriously. After all he is the Prime Minister of the nation and thus not expected to concentrate on one state beyond a point. However, leaving aside all norms and traditions, Modi made half a dozen trips to the state in two weeks prior to the declaration of elections and participated in many government programmes. Though this act of the Prime Minister could not be legally challenged, there is a thin line between legality and morality in the game of politics. Morally and ethically, Modi crossed all lines. But who cares? He believes that 'Everything is fair in Love and War.' For him, it’s a love for his own state that he ruled for 13 years and also a war against the Congress.

EC breaks away from usual practice

Fingers of doubt are raised on the Election Commission also for breaking from usual practice and delaying the announcement of polls in the state, and the BJP took advantage of this perfectly coincidental event to shower goodies on Gujarat. Hilariously, even the GST rate on khakrawas reduced. The defence put up by the EC that the delay was to allow the flood relief operations not to get blocked does not go well with any one. However, being a Constitutional High Power Body, it is difficult for any individual, party or a group of people to challenge the decision of the EC easily. On the other hand, the Congress and mainly Rahul is leaving no stone unturned to seek people's attention and divert them from the BJP to the Congress. He is addressing a series of public meetings, holding processions, participating in people's agitations and more significantly, making use of social media.

Curiously, Rahul's Social Media efforts seem to be yielding good fruits, if his growing number of followers and responses to his messages are any indication. While on one hand, Modi remains on the forefront to grab maximum Social media attention, Rahul does not shy away. He has started to grab the media attention by his crisp tweets and face-book posts. Many of his posts go viral in no time. That gives him instant publicity and helps him remain in the race for Gujarat. Off course, the Social Media impact is limited to urban and literate crowds and does not make any difference for the bulk of the electorate that has remained away from the computer revolution thanks to the illiteracy and erratic power supply in semi-rural and rural parts of the nation.

There has been a hectic activity on both sides of the fence. The question is, why? When the possible outcome of the elections is said to be foregone? One possible answer is that it is not about victory, but about limiting the scale of the BJP's victory. Something less than 120 seats, this theory goes, will be seen as a defeat for Modi. I don't believe that is it, though. Anything more than a noticeably narrow victory will be easily spun by the BJP. After all, to defeat anti-incumbency after all these decades, and without a prominent sub-national leader at the head of the state policy, will be a tremendous achievement, and can easily be sold as such. Is that the only answer? Or does it lie deeper? The answer is Yes. For the BJP, dominance is an end in itself. Modi and Shah have no first gear when it comes to politics. They are always in overdrive. Every election has to be fought as if it is a battle for survival, even when it so evidently isn't. We in India are not accustomed to perpetual electioneering, but this is what Shah and Modi have introduced to us and is perhaps their greatest innovation. You could argue it allows little time and mental space for governance, but that is not the point. The point is that it is this single-minded focus that has allowed the BJP to reach a point where it runs so many major states and the Gandhi Congress has been reduced to two, Karnataka and Punjab.

The point is that it is far from clear what, if anything can be done to take us back to an easier time in the past when elections were not things that our leaders were always preparing for. One often wonders if Modi's eagerness for the concept of simultaneous elections is not a plan to ensure that every BJP MP and MLA receives votes because of Modi, and instead is simple nostalgia for a time when he did not have to think about campaigning all the time.

FOR THE CONGRESS, this energy is not a battle for revival; it is a battle for survival. They are not looking to win; they are simply trying to look like a credible opposition. If Rahul continues, and going by all indication he will, there is every possibility that he and the Congress will lose the battle but will survive to take on Modi in the final war in 2019. Will he be able to play the trick?

A battle for survival

On the other hand, for Rahul and his party, the explanation is a little more complex. They may have no chance of winning Gujarat, but then they at the moment have no chance of winning 2019, either. Very simply, they have hit rock bottom. It is possible that Rahul and his Gujarat colleagues have by now realised that this is no longer true. If they don't try and fight almost impossible battles, then they will not exist as a credible political force long enough to outlast Modi. The Shah-Modi's BJP may not last forever, but as of now, they look like they will achieve their aim of a "Congress-mukt Bharat" before they go. For the Congress, this energy is not a battle for revival; it is a battle for survival. They are not looking to win; they are simply trying to look like a credible opposition. If Rahul continues, and going by all indication he will, there is every possibility that he and the Congress will lose the battle but will survive to take Modi on in the final war in 2019. Will he be able to play the trick?

The author is a poltical analyst and a Member of Parliament.