Congress presidency: Too big a shoe

What has been in the offing for the last three years, is now about to happen and if things happen as per the desired schedule, Rahul Gandhi would take over the Congress from mother Sonia Gandhi by the middle of the next month. Now that the decks are cleared for Rahul's elevation from ‘Vice President’ to ‘President’, the question that is under private and public discussion is, whether the oldest party of the nation is safe under his leadership. To discuss this question, one has to get in to the background of Rahul, particularly his 13-year stint in the Congress.

Rahul is most likely to be elevated to the topmost party post before the Gujarat election results are known in December, in a sense insulating him from any backlash. This promotion will happen after the sheer formalities of the election process are completed. These formalities seem to be meaningless as once Rahul and Soniaji declare their desire, none from the Congress is likely to dare to fill in any other nomination. Rahul's promotion will fulfill his mother's life-long dream. Rahul will be from the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty holding charge of the party – few large political outfits in the world have seen this sort of family control. After Motilal Nehru, there were four others – Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Soniaji who took the party saddle.

A tight personal campaign The good sign is that 47-year-old Rahul has of late seemed to shrug off the label of the reluctant heirloom politician that was the conventional wisdom about him. To everyone's surprise, he has run a tight and personal campaign in Gujarat, attacking the Modi government on its weak spots – the twin blows of demonetisation and the inept rollout of the GST which has seen several tweaks. Rahul Gandhi termed it the "Gabbar Singh Tax" and abandoned his usual laid-back style to jump in quickly and claim credit when GST slabs were rationalized yet again a few weeks ago. He seems to have a visceral dislike of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has unleashed a host of cases against his entire family; a defining characteristic of his careeer as an opposition leader. Rahul had led the Congress to a historic low of 44 seats in 2014 is his spirited opposition to Modi. He got the Modi government's land acquisition ordinance buried after his jibe of "suit boot ki sarkar" and his description of demonetisation as the "fair and lovely" scheme struck a chord. Yet, despite landing the occasional blow, Gandhi was not perceived as a serious political player specially in contrast to his towering rival, Modi.

A lot of that can be blamed on a well-administered IT Cell campaign of the BJP that called him as "Pappu" and mass-manufactured and distributed jokes about him on social media, especially WhatsApp, their weapon of choice. Rahul seemed to acknowledge this in recent comments, stating an image which was nothing like him had been tailor-made for him. Earlier this month, in Gujarat, he said, ''there are 100-200 paid BJP workers who sit in a call centre and attack me and spread lies about me". Yet, Modi's jibes about "Shehzada" (prince) still find traction and resonance in a country where 75 percent of the population is below 35 and impatient with inherited privilege and dynasty. Congress leaders, who are publicly thrilled with the prospect of Rahul taking over, concede in private that nothing much will change. Gandhi Junior has pretty much been calling the shots for a while now.

Soniaji ensured that she entrusted the decisionmaking and centre-stage to him much before the campaign for the Uttar Pradesh election began last year. It's only when he has run in to rough weather such as the disastrous defection of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar to the NDA that Sonia and her band of seasoned crisis managers have taken over. It's Soniaji's willingness to cede power that has ensured that her consigliere reconcile to the change and fall in line. "It's her dream to see Rahul as (Congress) President and hopefully, Prime Minister," believe senior Congress leaders. Of late, the party leaders used Soniaji as a trouble-shooter. For all said and done, one has to admit that it's only the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that can hold the Congress Party together.

Rahul, who had radicle plans to change the party philosophy, seems to have put on hold his fanciful ideas of transforming the Congress as he tried in an abortive experiment in the youth Congress. He has made his peace with the reality of dynasty in the party which entitles him to the big boss role. And with his take over, the entire generation of young leaders who were being kept in suspended animation will finally get their shot. This motley bunch of now middle-aged ‘youth icons’ will come into their own. So expect Jyotiraditya Scindia to finally get charge of Madhya Pradesh after Gandhi is elected. Madhya Pradesh is facing a lot of antiincumbency and the Congress is likely to get a more positive result there than in the upcoming two elections in Himachal and Gujarat.

Rahul has developed strange relationship with senior and mid-level leaders of the party. His relationship with Sonia-era leaders, such as her political secretary Ahmed Patel, initially extremely strained, has recently thawed. Ashok Gehlot, who is a fierce rival to Rahul's friend Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan, has made himself indispensable to Gandhi in Gujarat where he and a committee are dealing with ticket distribution.

The most fractious and potentially most important Hardik Patel, leader of the Patidars, is being handled by a league of senior Congress leaders including Kapil Sibal; yet, sparks are still flying. Gandhi will need to personally step in and assuage Hardik Patel. Senior leaders say that of late, Gandhi is far more amenable about meeting senior leaders. He has regular meetings with Kamal Nath and former PM Manmohan Singh. This is a major change in him.

Training in public speaking It is reliably learnt that Rahul worked on his public speaking after admitting that Modi beats him hollow as an orator. Other change – a more media-friendly approach. However, Rahul's real redemption will be to make the party win again. To date, he has only presided over spectacular defeat. His mother won the party two general elections and served a longest tenure as the Party President.

Considering the successful careers of his mother, father and grandmother, Rahul has big shoes to fill. Will he be able to fit the size? The test would be in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when he is bound to lead the Congress as a challenger to the BJP and Modi, who would be fiercely fighting to retain their hold.

I wish Rahul good luck!

The author is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS)