Cong 2019 strategy hinges on Gujarat
THE BJP has been consistently seeking to bait the Congress by raking up Tipu Sultan's 268th birth anniversary celebrations in Karnataka and the Padmavati issue, but to no avail. Like the sound of one hand clapping, it is met with silence. The question now
The sound of Rahul Gandhi's silence on ticklish issues is the best possible music for the Congress in Gujarat. By steering clear of the 2002 riots and refusing to engage with critics of Padmavati, he has left the ruling party floundering for electoral ammunition, just when the BJP needs it most. Devoid of an emotionally-charged hot potato to draw young voters away from the charismatic Hardik Patel, the BJP must now rely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to retrieve its fortunes in Gujarat.
The stakes for both the ruling party and the opposition are high. Rahul Gandhi's career and by extension, the future of the Congress, depend on a credible victory in Gujarat. As always, when faced with compelling circumstances, the Congress has diluted its left-of-centre, pro-minority stance. And as before, this U-turn has given the Muslim community the heebie-jeebies. The more savvy among the Muslim leaders knew it was coming, after the BJP's absolute majority in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections established the apparent irrelevance of minority vote banks.
If Rahul is on a temple-hopping spree, presenting himself as a devotee of Lord Shiva and observing a deafening silence on the 2002 riots, it is because the party recongizes the need for course-correction. Politics has come full circle since 1950, the year Shyama Prasad Mukherjee quit the Nehru Cabinet in protest against the Delhi Pact with Pakistan and subsequently went on to establish the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (which would become the BJP and oust the Congress).
The Congress's Gujarat strategy is well thought-out, unlike its knee-jerk approach to the UP elections. Realizing its lack of a footprint in Gujarat, it has been working on the alliance with Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mavani for months. Ideally, the Congress would have wanted them to come on board, but only Thakore took the bait. Both Hardik and Rahul realize that their alliance is based on a false premise – a quota for the Patels, which is impossible in the current legal framework – and will yield only a short-term benefit. Hardik's theatre in the foreseeable future is Gujarat, where his rival is the BJP. He has no interest in a resurgent Congress.
Accounts of the clashes between the Patels and Muslims in 2002 make it clear that the riots could not figure as an issue in the election campaign. In Visnagar, Mehsana and elsewhere, the Patels assaulted Muslims in the wake of Godhra while in parts of Ahmedabad, the Patels accused the Muslims of violence. The Patels may now claim that they were 'misled' by the BJP's “communal politics” and be willing to reach out to the “Miyas”, but that's clearly an electoral ploy and will have little resonance with voters. Rahul has wisely not raised the subject since March this year.
Nor has the Congress sought to attack the PM personally. The unfortunate chaiwallah meme, in which a snotty Donald Trump and Theresa May are shown looking down on Modi-the-erstwhile-tea-vendor, was manna from heaven for the BJP. It gave them something to talk about.
The BJP has been consistently seeking to bait the Congress by raking up Tipu Sultan's 268th birth anniversary celebrations in Karnataka and the Padmavati issue, but to no avail. Like the sound of one hand clapping, it is met with silence. The question now being asked is whether this new-found pragmatism and flexibility is permanent, or whether the Congress will revert to its Nehruvian roots?
Rahul's new-found religiosity is significant in this respect. The Congress leadership has never identified itself in religious terms. This is understandable, since the Gandhis were a classic upper-class “modern family”, with no room for distinctions of class, caste or creed. Feroze Gandhi was a Parsi (born Feroze Jehangir Ghandy), Indira Gandhi a Hindu and Sonia Gandhi a Catholic. So, Rahul can be anything he chooses. That he has chosen to be a Shiv-bhakt is a big break from the past. But what does it auger for the future?
The Gujarat result will shape Congress's strategy for 2019. The party currently enjoys the advantages of anti-incumbency and Hardik's storm-troopers, but is handicapped by the lack of a chief ministerial face and lacks a solid organizational base. None of this matters in the event of negative voting, when the aam admi simply wants the incumbent party out, come what may. In a 50-50 or even a 60-40 contest, however, good organization carries the day. That is where BJP president Amit Shah excels.
For a month, a Cabinet minister has been parked in Ahmedabad, collecting feedback from all quarters. An army of pracharaks and vistaraks from across the country have been deployed. Through Saam Daam Dand Bhed (Chanakya's famous sutra), insiders say, he will pull off yet another electoral miracle. At this point, battered by demonetization and GST, the BJP could certainly use one.