Back to the drawing board on neighbourhood policy
India needs to rework on its neighbourhood policy. Thankfully, the government has realised its mistake and is working towards repairing the damage. A start was made with the visit of Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Oli last week. Officials, too, have acknowledged that India-Nepal need to reset ties, and the old habit of dictating to smaller vulnerable neighbours may no longer work in changed circumstances, where China has become active in India’s neighbourhood.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi began well in 2014. His ‘’neighbourhood first’’ policy was much appreciated. In fact, he began with his inauguration, where all SAARC leaders were invited. He also tried to make peace with Pakistan, but that attack in Uri and the air force station in Pathankot dried up the goodwill. Since then, India-Pakistan ties have steadily deteriorated.
While the breakdown at peace move with Pakistan invariably does not succeed, Atal Bihari Vajpayee tried his best, but came a cropper, what is worrying are the rest of the neighbours. Maldives, the island archipelago in the Indian Ocean, has turned away from India. China’s footprints are expanding across the island raising alarm bells not just in Delhi but also in Washington. The Pentagon said on Saturday that it was worried about reports of land grab by China in the Maldives. Fears of China establishing a base in the island were initially raised by the opposition.
In friendly Sri Lanka too, the pro-China former president Mahinda Rajapaksa is gaining momentum and his newly formed party swept local elections. India had backed the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe combination which, at the moment, seems unable to push reforms and ensure that Tamil minorities get their due. Rajapaksa and India fell out during the last part of his rule because of his tilt towards China.
Bangladesh, where Hasina Sheikh is a close friend of India, is facing incumbency. The country has to have a new government by January next year. By the end of the year, Dhaka will be in election mode. Delhi’s ties with the Bangladesh opposition led by Khaleda Zia have never been smooth. Her return to power could affect IndiaBangladesh ties, as Delhi is seen as being too close to the Awami League. In Seychelles, a 2015 agreement to build a military base in Assumption has not yet been ratified in the island’s parliament and is expected to be delayed indefinitely. Protests by environmental groups led to a change of mind by the opposition.
In these circumstances, it is necessary for India to go back to the drawing board and rethink its neighbourhood policy. And perhaps, Nepal has shown the way. As soon as it was clear that the Nepali Congress, known to be close to Delhi were out, overtures were made to Oli. Prime Minister Modi himself was on the phone line and speaking to Oli twice before he was formally anointed. He sent foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to Kathmandu again before the swearing in of the new government. As a result, Oli kept up the tradition of making Delhi his first foreign visit.
Yet, in India, Oli made it clear that while Nepal wants to be friends with all countries, and especially India with which it has close cultural, religious and historical links as well as excellent people to people ties, Nepal was a sovereign power and would take decisions according to what suited its self interest. This was said firmly, though politely. Nepal’s foreign minister Pradeep Gyawali, said in a recent interview to Nepali Times : “The blocade instilled in us the confidence that we can overcome any challenge….Post blockade, Nepal is no longer afraid of any foreign country. It has more confidence and self respect.” A new confident Nepal is not willing to take dictation from foreign powers.
The Modi government made a major mistake in Nepal by trying to force the former Oli government to change the new Republican Constitution it unveiled in September 2015. By taking a tough pro Madhesi stand, Delhi literally pushed Nepal into China’s waiting arms. The government’s institutional memory failed. A blockade to bring Nepal to heel was tried by former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 with little success. This time around, when Delhi, batting for the Indian-origin Madhesis, repeated Rajiv Gandhi’s mistake, India lost the goodwill not just of the government but the people of Nepal. As the land-locked country depends for 80 percent of their supplies coming in through India, the blockade led to immense misery for ordinary Nepalese. Gas, oil, foodgrain, medicines, all were in short supply. Oli was then PM, thundered against India and turned to China. He signed a trade and transit agreement with China and vowed never to put all its eggs into one basket. Soon afterwards, Oli was replaced as PM, and Nepalese accuse India of ensuring that he lost power.
It is obvious that Delhi has learnt its lesson. But this should be carried through not just with Nepal but all smaller nations in the neighbourhood. Instead of sulking because all neighbours are signing up for China’s belt and road initiative, India needs to ensure that it come up with good ideas and implement them. All nations want new infrastructure, and if China offers both the funds and the expertise to quickly implement them, few nations can reject a good deal. India should not compete with China on these but play to its strength which is institution building. Training officials, helping hospitals and agriculture would be a good start.
The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in foreign policy and international affairs.