HIGH STAKES CAMPAIGN COMES TO AN END

The curtain has come down on one of the most contentious electoral battles in recent times with the end of campaigning in the Karnataka Assembly elections on Thursday. The stakes involved are huge indeed. For the Congress, it is a virtual battle for survival, the party having shrunk as never before with only Karnataka and Punjab in their kitty as of now among major states. Loss of Karnataka will make a mockery of their claims to lead the Opposition challenge to the BJP which is riding high being in the saddle in as many as 22 states. Already, the threat of a third force looms large led by West Bengal’s stormy petrel Mamata Banerjee. It is no secret that Mamata conceived the third front to ward off the possibility of Congress supremo Sonia Gandhi foisting her son and heir, Rahul Gandhi, on a fickle and directionless opposition as the joint challenger to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2019 general elections. The Congress indeed desperately needs to retain power in Karnataka to remain relevant. But even if the Congress manages a win there, the fact that its leader, Rahul Gandhi, is a poor match for Modi can hardly be brushed aside.

For the BJP, a win in Karnataka will boost its chances in the general elections and demoralise the Opposition rank and file. In effect, it would make the party look formidable. When the votes are counted in Karnataka on May 15, there is a third party whose leaders would be salivating — the Janata Dal (S) — which is confident that the electorate would throw up a ‘hung’ assembly and catapult it to the role of a ‘king maker’. As it stands, the BJP equation with JD (S) is distinctly better but there is no knowing if the Congress would come round to offering the chief ministership to JD (S) leader Kumaraswamy in a coalition to wean him away towards it. Kumaraswamy is known to cut deals and morality and scruples are not his strong points.

While Modi’s oratory and blitzkrief campaign seem to have given the BJP the edge to be the single largest party, the campaign of all major contenders has had many negatives for Karnataka. Initially, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah tried to drive a wedge between the locals and the North Indians, but that did not cut much ice. The BJP and the Congress have both raked up caste identity and tried to carve out distinct vote banks fuelling caste divisions. Mercifully, the religious divide has not been strong in this election. With the Siddaramaiah government steeped in corruption and the BJP inspiring little hope with a tainted Yeddyurappa at its head, corruption was not a major issue in this election. All in all, it was a negative campaign on all sides with little credible assurance of development from all sides. It is indeed a sad commentary on our democracy that positivity and concrete blueprint for a better deal had little place in the scheme of things.