Who will untie the Karnataka knot?

Even as the most awaited verdict of the Karnataka State Assembly elections is due to be out by tomorrow afternoon, there seems to be an uneasy silence in all rival camps. Leaders and their followers are left with no other alternative but to bite their nails and keep praying to the almighty for the best possible results. In between, the local and the national media is busy in playing their own games. Though, each of the political observer and pundit are making their own estimation and prediction of the outcome of the election, frankly, none of them really has any clue to what Karnataka population has chosen. The people have held their cards so close to their chests that no one can ever see the trump cards they are holding and are unable to predict which card they have played. Therefore, there is a lull in the atmosphere that signals a storm sooner than later.

Record books show that Karnataka has a habit of throwing unexpected results. The state, of late, has changed the government in almost every election. The state has seen different Chief Ministers from different political parties. It had all powerful Nijalingappa and Virendra Patil as its chief ministers. It also saw Bangarappa and Ramkrishna Hegde. Gundu Rao of the Congress also had a full term here. In 2003, there was a Congress rule before it returned the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2008. However, the Kannadigas overthrew Yeddyurappa Government in 2013 to make way for Siddaramaiah. Karnataka was the first and the only south Indian state to experience the saffron party rule. The BJP considered Karnataka as its ‘Gateway to the South’. However, this experiment failed within five years as the BJP had to face a humiliating defeat from the Congress in 2013.

If the Congress loses

A lot of water flew under the bridge since then and now, the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah have posed a serious threat to the Congress. This challenge is grave as in case the Congress fails to retain the state, it would be reduced to having governments in only two states – Punjab and Pondicherry. Considering that the tiny Pondicherry is a small union territory, the Congress would be left with only one state. On the other hand, if the BJP manages to wrest power from the Congress, it would be seen as a ‘feather in its cap’, This possible win would work as the most needed fuel for the party to face the ‘tri-state battle’ (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) early next year to be followed by Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

Political observers and experts seem to be totally puzzled in predicting the possible outcome of Karnataka. As a result, their predictions are contrary to each other. While some renowned poll prediction outfits are of the opinion that the Congress would manage to retain the power, others see change of guard. There are observers who are playing safe and say that the JD(S) of former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda would hold the key. Deve Gowda himself says that he would form the government on his own. While the Congress President Rahul Gandhi has been repeatedly boasting of winning decisive mandate, while , BJP’s Amit Shah is also confident that the BJP would not require outside support as the party itself would win more than 113 seats required for majority.

However, the reality is far different than the estimations of the party bosses. Reliable poll surveys show that Karnataka is heading for a hung Assembly. In that scenario, it would make it obligatory for at least two parties to come together to stake claim for power of the state. Here, Deve Gowda plays the vital role. Whichever party emerges the single largest party, it would have to seek JD(S)’s active support to muster 113+ numbers. Whether it’s the Congress or the BJP, Deve Gowda is sure to play a tough game as that would be the only occasion when he can make any leader to bend before him. Deve Dowda would get a chance to demand his price and that would be too heavy to be paid. It could be the position of Deputy Chief Minister coupled with portfolios like Home and Revenue. Or he could also demand chief minister’s post turn by turn. If the BJP is on the negotiation table, it would be a difficult game for Deve Gowda as Amit Shah is a tough negotiator on table. However, if Devegowda has to talk to the Congress, it would be relatively easier for him to make his demands accepted. This is because now the Congress is in such a fix that Rahul Gandhi would accept anything and everything to retain chief minister’s chair with the party.

If the BJP wrests power

Another area that should be watched eagerly is in case the BJP is able to wrest power from the Congress, who becomes the chief minister. Former incumbent B S Yeddyurappa is hopeful to get the coveted seat. However, he is not sure. The leader, who has crossed 75, feels that Shah and Modi might ask him to take a ‘voluntary retirement’ from hectic active politics and not to stake his claim for the top political position of the state despite his seniority. Modi-Shah duo has done this before in Maharashtra, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, where seniormost leaders were asked to make way for junior and young leadership. In that case, Yeddyurappa would be left with no other alternative but to revolt once again and push the state in the ‘state of uncertainty’, once again.

Let’s see what happens tomorrow.