NOT FIT AS A FIDDLE

Law of diminishing returns sets in

47% feel NDA does not deserve second chance; only 39% favour a second innings; Cong will surge ahead if elections are held in MP, Rajasthan; PM’s own popularity takes a dip; Rahul on the upswing; not just religious minorities, but Hindus too vertically split

The tide seems to be turning against the Narendra Modiled NDA government: there are more people in the country today who believe that the government does not deserve another opportunity to govern. As against those who think it needs a second chance.

This is the most glaring finding of the ABP News CSDS Mood of the Nation survey. According to the survey, almost 47% of the total 15,859 respondents interviewed were of the opinion that the Modi government does not deserve another chance in 2019. Less than two out of every five, or 39%, thought it did deserve a second innings, with the rest being non-committal.

It is not just the NDA, Modi’s own popularity too has taken a dip, as per the survey. It is at 34%, at present. Rahul Gandhi’s popularity rating has increased from 16% in 2014 to 24% in 2018.

The bad news for the BJP is in Rajasthan. The Congress is likely to make huge gains if assembly elections are held

in the state today; it may get 44% vote share, BJP 39% and others 17%. In 2013, the BJP had 45% vote share, the Congress 33%, and others 22%.

Madhya Pradesh remains another nagging worry. The Congress is likely to stump the BJP and get 49% vote share; the BJP will secure just 34% and others 17%.

In Maharashtra, the BJP (48%) is ahead of the UPA (40%). But, the BJP needs to contest in tandem with the Shiv Sena to secure this vote percentage. In 2014, the vote share was 51% for NDA.

According to the survey, 32% of the respondents said they would vote for the BJP in the event of a snap election. At the start of the year, the same survey had found out that 34% of the voters would do so. This two percent drop in a five-month period is another indicator of the diminishing returns that have set in for the Modi government.

The survey also found out that the anti-Modi government sentiment was especially strong among the country’s religious minorities. “About three-fourths of Muslims, threefifths of Christians and well over half the Sikhs indicated that they do not wish to see the Modi government coming back to power next year,” the survey found out.The survey, rather unexpectedly, also found a sizeable section of voters from the majority Hindu community also harbour an antigovernment sentiment.

According to the survey, the Hindu votes are nearly vertically split on the question of whether the Modi regime should be given another chance with 44% exhibiting a progovernment stand and 42% taking an anti-government position. “Out of all Hindu communities, Dalits and Adivasis, who have also been victims of violence and atrocities, were found to be most vociferous in their opposition to the government at 55% and 43% respectively. Dominant OBC communities are also quite opposed (42%) to the present government,” the survey found.