Four years on, BJP’s party time is over

While I write this column, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), its leaders and followers are busy in celebrating completion of four years of its Government in the Centre. Essentially it means the celebration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he has become ‘the symbol’ of the party, rather the backbone of the BJP’s very existence. Had it not been the relentless efforts by the then Gujarat chief minister and the blunders after blunders those the then Manmohan Singh government committed, the BJP would not be able to register the ‘single party’ majority in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Modi singlehandedly not only pulled the Congress out of power but reduced it to a two digit figure even falling short to be recognised as the ‘Opposition Party’. This was not only a severe blow to the Sonia-Rahul Gandhi rule but also to all the opposition force, who took more than three years to come out of the rude shock.

Now, four years have passed and the wind has started changing its direction palpably. The defeat of the party in the two Lok Sabha by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, party’s unchallengeable bastion in UP, preceded by party’s defeat in Punjab Assembly elections and sizable reduction in seats in Gujarat and now it’s failure to wrest power in Karnataka, have only indicated that all is not well for Modi and his men in the nation. This is dangerously significant for the ruling party as the 2019 Lok Sabha elections have reached the door-step and unless Modi uses a magical viand, the situation seems to be going out of his hands. If the reflecting unrest of the people continues to spread all over, the 2019 will see the wave like 2014 but in the opposite direction. Congress ‘too’ weak The only saving grace for the BJP is that the Congress is too weak to take the BJP giant on, and the rest of the opposition parties, most of them regional forces are busy in settling their own old accounts with one another. ‘Divide and Rule’ would be the only ‘mantra’ that would save the BJP, and the party’s Chanakya, Amit Shah, is actively working on that solution. Most of the non-BJP leaders assembled in Bengaluru to greet the new chief minister H D Kumaraswamy of the Janata Dal(S), it turned out to be only a ‘photo opportunity’ as all leaders stood together with hand-in-hand and vowed to run together and face the onslaught of the so called ‘Saffron Brigade’. However, even before the smiling photographs saw the light of the day next morning, cracks developed visibly in the process of their unity. It is difficult to believe that Mamata Banerjee and the CPI(M) in West Bengal; Akhilesh and Mayawati in UP; DMK and AIDMK in Tamil Nadu can stand together.

However, notwithstanding with the cracks in the opposition, the fact remains that the BJP rule is failing to continue to rule the people’s mind the way it ruled in 2014. If the party, particularly Modi, cannot regain the vanishing confidence in people’s mind, it would be most difficult, if not impossible for the BJP to repeat its performance of 2014. This fear is because the party has to gain newer areas to spread its influence and those areas are far from being in sight.

The UP that was primly responsible for giving the lead to the BJP, has shown a sharp decline in BJP’s popularity after its spectacular win in 2017 Assembly elections; the pointer being party’s humiliating defeat in two Lok Sabha by-elections held recently. The party has very little hope to retain Rajasthan and is on a back-foot in Madhya Pradesh. While in Gujarat, the party showed a poor performance in the recent Assembly elections; in Maharashtra, too, the BJP will have to go on a back foot if its longtime partner Shiv Sena lives up with its threat to go on its own.

In short, the BJP is facing rough weather at the national level, despite the fact that some opinion polls done to coincide with the fourth anniversary of the Modi Government did show results favouring Modi as the prime minister. It means, people are happy with Modi but equally dissatisfied with his men in the Centre and at state levels. Now, it’s time for the BJP to get out of the celebrations and slogan shouting, and quietly do some introspection as to what is going wrong and what needs to be repaired. However, neither ministers, nor leaders, including the party president Amit Shah seem to be in a mood to do some soul searching. This attitude can prove to be fatal if goes without major alteration within next six months. Demonetisation & GST

Major decisions like demonetisation and introduction of GST regime seem to have opened the flood gates for people’s anger. Not that these decisions are wrong but the government mechanism, particularly the party net-work, failed and failed miserably to create an atmosphere of confidence in people’s mind. On the other hand, the Congress, particularly its supreme leader Rahul Gandhi, woke up and launched a frontal attack on the BJP. This has helped wipe out his image of being ‘Pappu’ on one hand and on the other hand, put the BJP on defensive for the first time. Considering that a brutal offence has been BJP’s main war cry for the last four years, going on back foot and cover the stumps is becoming a bit difficult for the BJP workers.

The immediate cause of concern for the BJP and the government is the ever increasing prices of petrol and diesel in the retail market. The prices are increasing almost every day for the last one month. The Government has been defending itself giving ‘international’ reasons and promising to take measures soon. But, no measure is announced except assurances. This has created a deficit of confidence and faith in the minds of the people.

Now, all eyes are set on Modi to see what trick he plays to bring in ‘Achhe Din’ for the last man of the nation.

The writer is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).