Kairana:Modi’s Indira moment
Jats, Dalits, Muslims together
For the entire Opposition, in general, and Ajit Singh, in particular, the Kairana win is a watershed moment – or what a media source dubbed as PM Modi’s Indira moment. Mrs Gandhi had experienced a similar gang-up of opposition parties after the Emergency.
The constituency’s 1.5 lakh Jats had switched their affections to the BJP in the last general elections after the sharp polarisation following the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli districts.
Most of the Jats, disillusioned with the BJP, have returned to Ajit Singh’s fold. Significantly, they have voted for a Muslim candidate. So, the real takeaway for the Opposition in Kairana is that Muslims, Dalits and Jats came on the same platform and voted for the same party – the RLD. "This win would not have been possible if Jats and Muslims, who form nearly half the population in Kairana, had not voted together," Tabassum Hasan told the media after her victory by a handsome margin of 55000 votes. She is now the only Muslim MP from Uttar Pradesh since 2014 elections.
Of course, there was simmering anger among ugarcane farmers over non-payment of their dues by the sugar mills running into crores of rupees and the failure of Modi government to create jobs, which reignited the Jat demand for reservations.
Kairana's 2.5 lakh Dalits who in 2014 had also voted for the BJP played no mean role in Tabassum’s triumph.
The BJP along with its allies had swept 73 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 general
elections and won an overwhelming 312 seats out of a total 423 in the state assembly elections last year. All that could change of the BJP is confronted by a united Opposition.
RLD leader Ajit Singh’s son Jayant Chaudhary told a news portal that he expects the combined opposition to keep its momentum in the Lok Sabha elections. "I am confident that the RLD will play the role of a catalyst in cementing the opposition unity and alliance. Whatever the alliance, we will play a positive role," he told reporters.
Jayant has a very good equation with Akhliesh Yadav, which is again a sign of the changing times. Mulayam Singh and Ajit Singh, after they fell out, never had the best of the relations. But all that seems to be changing with a new generation taking the guard.