‘Longest bull market for India’

Since 2013, the Indian capital market has been a mature one. For over four years, the equity markets have managed to hold that spot and experts feel that this is the longest bull market.

“A good bull-run in the market takes place slowly and steadily,” stated Bharat Shah, executive director, ASK Group, while speaking at a panel discussion organised by theRotary Club of Bombay. He said that in various phases in the past during market crashes, 95 per cent of investors lost money. Shah, in his career spanning over three decades, saw over six phases – in 198586, 1988, 1991-92, 1995-96, 2001, and 2007— of terrible market. Shah said that the market did well even when growth of the economy was brief.

Manish Chokhani, Director, Enam Holdings, who was also a panelist, said, “The macro and micro-economics of India today is at its best, compared to what we have seen in three decades.” Chokhani stressed that in scenarios like 1991 and 2007-08, everyone got wet. “As an investor, you need to be worried about the companies you invest in.” This time around, Chokhani believes, global activities will come into play in the Indian markets.

When one invests, he will have to identify good business, people and so on. This needs a lot of research and understanding, said Shah. “No doubt, it is a boring work but it produces good yields.” At present, the market is punishing companies whose sectors are not doing well but companies with strong matrix come out triumph.

Commenting about the standing of mid-, small- and large-caps, Shah argued that it is bogus and fraudulent way of describing the market. “There are only two thing either the market grows or does not grow.” He added, “Artificial bracketing is intellectually a bad idea. One should focus on attributes that create value to a company.” He explained that it is simple either there are companies that are good or bad.

Chokhani, sharing his experience in working with foreign institutional investors (FIIs), said they will be back in India. India has a positive equity market but having FII participation is important. “The reason FIIs exited India is that they foresaw the rupee depreciation in advance. But they will come back,” claimed Chokhani.