Election season begins

The Election Commission seems to have decided that elections must be a long drawn out affair, extending over a protracted period of time. Instead of compressing polling and counting within a reasonable period of time, voters having cast their votes have to wait for several weeks for the outcome. This is an avoidable distraction. Governments in the poll-bound States virtually remain in suspended animation. Why, in a country which has had several general elections held across the country on a single day, should it be the norm to extend the polling exercise over several weeks. Take the timetable for Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana. The polling begins on November 12 and ends on December 7. And the vote-count is on December 11. With computerisation of the process, it should be easier to complete the task in the five States within at the most a week. The model code of conduct which comes into force from the date of notification of the poll schedule, brings all decision-making to standstill. The EC should seriously consider why it is not possible to compress the time between polling and counting. Having said this, contrary to the general view that these elections are a signpost to the real big one next year when Modi will seek a second five-year term, we have a different opinion. We believe that regardless of the outcome in the States, the general election can throw up a totally different result. In other words, even if the BJP were to do badly in all these States, which, as per the opinion polls, it will not, a Modi-led BJP in the Lok Sabha remains on a much stronger wicket. The reasons are not far to seek. One, Modi’s own national popularly remains high. No other Opposition leader, including Rahul Gandhi, particularly Rahul Gandhi, comes close to him. Two, Modi’s popularity surpasses by quite a few notches that of his party. The Opposition, or the Mahagathbandhan or the grand alliance, or call what you will, does not have a national figure to match Modi’s all-India ratings. Popular State leaders are popular only in their respective States. Therefore, any talk of the outcome of the State elections casting a shadow over Modi’s re-election is baseless. Yes, for a few days, a particularly bad showing by the BJP will grant the winners the bragging rights as if the Delhi fort of Modi is as good as conquered, but in real terms it will not affect his chances of re-election.

Besides, aside from Rajasthan, where, thanks to Vasundhra Raje’s hubris and a not so-clean image, the Congress seems to be far ahead as per the opinion polls. Again, Rajasthan has alternated between the Congress and the BJP in successive elections and Raje seems to be the unlikely leader to break the pattern. Another factor in favour of the Congress is that it has its chief ministerial candidate in place. Whether Sachin Pilot is projected or it is Ashok Gehlot, who has a better connect with people outside the urban areas, the voter is aware who might replace Raje. Not so in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Though a power-sharing arrangement of sorts was devised in MP with the venal Kamal Nath as Pradesh Congress Chief and ‘Maharaj’ Jyotiraditya Scinda as campaign committee chief, former chief minister Digvijay Singh cannot be written off. It is hard to see various factions sinking their differences for achieving the common goal. The MP battle is complicated further for the Congress because Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is a wily old fox whose grassroots popularity remains undiminished. The same opinion poll which showed Rajasthan as good as lost to the BJP also reported that the gap between the BJP and the Congress is so small that it can be easily covered by the polling date. Therefore, the outcome in MP is wide open. And don’t discount the Mayawati factor. She can take away three to four percent of the anti-BJP vote thus push the Congress to the second place yet again. Come to Chhattisgarh. Raman Singh wants a fourth term, especially when the Congress does not have a known face to challenge him. Besides, the Ajit Singh-Mayawati tie-up in a State where the Congress polled a mere 0.75 per cent less popular vote and yet lost power last time can prove ominous for the Congress.

The loss of Rajasthan and retention of power in MP and Chhattisgarh seems to be the best case scenario for the BJP. As for Telangana, outgoing chief minister K Chandra Shekhar Rao would not have dissolved the Assembly nine months ahead of time were he not confident of retaining power. The Congress is still trying to find its feet near-total eclipse last time The BJP has little stake in Telangana, though KCR is known to be pragmatic, ready to do business with the central government. Mizoram is one State where the Congress is in power and the BJP is set to make a serious bid to wrest it from it through local alliances. Engrossing political times lie ahead.