Battle for heartland states

Said to be a bellwether before the next year’s parliamentary elections, the recent announcement of assembly polls in five states is being seen as a semifinal for the 2019. Across different phases, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana will go to polls from November 12 to December 7. The results, which will be announced on December 11, will be an indicator of who holds the edge while going into the next general elections. These five states account for 83 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.

Of the five states, the three heartland states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – where the two national parties will go head-to-head are considered crucial for both the Congress and the BJP. A victory for the Congress will signal a party on the revival path, while a victory for the saffron outfit will help the BJP-led NDA seek a second term at the Centre in 2019 general elections. A decisive victory for BJP will also brighten Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s chances to emerge a favourite for the parliamentary polls.

Much rides on the outcome of the elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. A victory for the Congress in at least two of the three states will be a big boost for the party as well as the Congress-led opposition. An unfavourable result for the Congress will affect the party’s bargaining power in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls. Political commentators are of the view that even if the Congress wins just one of the three states, it will strengthen the leadership position of the grand old party vis-a-vis opposition unity.

The challenge for Modi and his party is even bigger. The BJP is an incumbent in these states. Of the three, the BJP has ruled MP and Chhattisgarh for 15 years. As the chief vote-catcher for the BJP, the prime minister will have to ensure a comfortably victory for his party. An emphatic win for the BJP in these states will add fresh momentum to Modi’s popularity, which has taken a beating lately. Winning big in the heartland states will also impact the opposition’s prospects in the 2019 general elections.

In 2017, the Congress won Punjab and Puducherry on its own strength. It also emerged as the single largest party in Goa and Manipur. In Gujarat, the Congress did not win but the Gandhi scion not only made the prime minister look vulnerable on his home turf, but brought down the BJP’s tally to double-digit in its strongest citadel. In Karnataka, the Congress did not retain power but BJP also failed to get the majority. So, how are the two parties going to fare in the heartland states?

According to the average of three opinion polls, the Congress could win Rajasthan, while it will be a close fight in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. All opinion polls predict a clear majority for the Congress in Rajasthan. According to the ABP opinion survey, the Congress is headed for a massive win in Rajasthan with 142 of the 200 seats. In MP and Chhattisgarh, the ABP poll predicts a modest victory for the Congress with 122 out of 230 seats and 47 out of 90 seats, respectively. The BJP, on the other hand, is projected to get 56 seats in Rajasthan, 108 in MP and 40 in Chhattisgarh.

In terms of the vote share, the Congress is predicted to log in 50 per cent of the votes in Rajasthan; the BJP 34 per cent and others 16 per cent. However, in MP the difference between the vote share of the Congress and the BJP is only 0.7 per cent: 42.2 per cent for the Congress against 41.5 per cent for the BJP. It’s the same story in Chhattisgarh where the difference between the vote shares of the two principal opponents is only 0.3 per cent: 38.9 per cent for the Congress and 38.6 per cent for the BJP. The marginal difference in vote share makes the elections in MP and Chhattisgarh a close battle.

However, an aggregate of three opinion polls shows that the Congress may win two of the three BJP-ruled states: Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the latter with a wafer-thin margin, while the BJP is expected to retain only Madhya Pradesh. Let’s take Rajasthan first. An aggregate of two opinion polls puts the Congress in the driver’s seat with a tally of 129 out of the state’s 200 seats, a huge gain over 21 seats it won in 2013; the BJP is expected to get only 63 seats, a huge loss from 163 it won in the last election. In Madhya Pradesh, the poll of three opinion polls suggests that the BJP will romp home with 126 seats, way below its 2013 tally of 165 seats; the Congress will get 97 seats, up from 58 seats last time.

Moving on to Chhattisgarh, the poll of polls shows a win for the Congress with 47 seats in the 90-member assembly, while the BJP will get 39 seats, down from 49 seats in 2013. Political experts are divided over whether Mayawati’s decision to go solo in MP and Rajasthan and align with Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress in Chhattisgarh will impact Congress and benefit the BJP. In 2013, the BSP had polled 6.42 per cent votes and won 4 seats in MP; in Rajasthan it won 3 seats with a vote share 3.4 per cent and in Chhattisgarh the BSP’s vote share was 4.27 per cent. In a close contest, the smallest margins can make all the difference.

Apart from the battle for heartland states, Telangana is expected to be a big challenge for the Congress and the BJP. Chief minister Chandrashekar Rao’s move to go for an early election is expected to pay rich dividends for his party, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which is predicted to win 85 of the state’s 117 seats, leaving both the Congress and the BJP far behind, according to an aggregate of two opinion polls. However, Mizoram is a crucial state for the Congress which is currently in power for second consecutive term in the state. The BJP-led NDA which rules six of the eight North-East states is hoping to win Mizoram in alliance with the Mizo National Front, a member of the BJP-led North-East Democratic Alliance. But more than Telangana and Mizoram, the focus will be on the battle for the heartland states where a lot is at stake for the Congress and the BJP.