BJP has lost the plot, sense of commitment

In its election manifesto for 2014, the BJP made an explicit promise to “explore all possibilities within the framework of the constitution to facilitate the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya”, thereby binding itself to the judicial process. For four years thereafter, it quietly awaited the judgment of the Supreme Court on the issue. Now, it seems to be running out of patience.

There’s no denying that the judicial process has proceeded at a snail’s pace. The case has been before the apex court for seven years, ever since it stayed the Allahabad High Court order dividing the land between representatives of the two communities in a 2:1 ratio. The only forward movement has been in terms of a majority verdict by a three-judge bench, refusing to revist a 1994 ruling that a mosque is not essential to the practice of Islam. Hopes of day-to-day hearings to resolve the issue were belied when the SC chose to defer it to January, 2019.

The timing of the RSS-BJP demand for enabling legislation, whether in the form of an ordinance or a bill in the winter session of Parliament, indicates that it is not prompted by a dilatory judiciary alone. There’s a sense that time is running out for the government, with general elections around the corner and a very real likelihood that the numbers will be less favourable than they are at the moment. If at all the legislative option is to be exercised, there’s no better opportunity.

The primary motive may well be political. For the BJP, mass mobilisation on Ram Janambhoomi is low-hanging fruit. Yet, for all the hue and cry by Opposition parties, the BJP has not made the mandir a focus of its electoral campaigns. In 1999, the Kargil victory was front and centre in the run-up to elections and brought Atal Bihari Vajpayee to power. The 2004 re-election campaign ran on the ‘India Shining’ slogan, while the 2014 bid for power centred around the development mantra, pitching Narendra Modi as the ‘vikaas purush’.

To change track now has its political advantages, but is also fraught with problems. On the plus side, it would certainly perk up the cadre, which has had to deal with uncomfortable questions from voters on the economy, public sector bank NPAs, farm sector woes, the Rafale deal and so on. More importantly, it could lead to polarisation of votes, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, which always benefits the BJP. The regional parties, particularly in UP, would have to take a hard pro-minority and anti-mandir stance. The Congress would have to do the same, however much it would prefer not to.

On the other hand, the BJP is in power and cannot behave like an Opposition party by taking to the streets on the mandir issue. Modi has always sought to present the BJP as being much more than just a mandir party and has done so with considerable success. He confounded the Opposition by sweeping to power on the development plank and thereby enhanced his credibility and gained considerable traction around the globe. To dilute that advantage now makes little sense.

The very fact that the government is dealing with myriad problems, most recently the internicine warfare in the CBI (which promises to get worse day by day) and the intransigence of the RBI, will give the Opposition the opportunity to dub Ram Janambhoomi as a political ploy intended to deflect attention. Speculation that the RSS believes the BJP to be on a weak electoral wicket is already rife. Making the mandir a cause celebre will only add fuel to the fire.

It would certainly reflect on the PM, whose ‘strongman’ image has been undermined by the indiscipline among its top bureaucrats. He cannot afford to be seen as having ‘lost the plot’ and therefore, falling back on Ram Janambhoomi.

A section of voters may also feel that taking the legislative route now, after years of somnolence, is pure electoral theatrics. Anyhow, an ordinance is a risky move, because it is subject to judicial review and the apex court may well feel that the government could have waited until it finished hearing the case. A Bill will pass easily in the Lok Sabha but may run aground in the Upper House.

Even within the sangh parivar, a substantial section feels that the BJP should stick to the development agenda rather than play the Ram Janambhoomi card. Big strides have been made in energy and infrastructure, a strong global outreach established, a number of social sector schemes initiated and a bold leap forward made with GST. It should be possible to present New India as a work in progress, despite many missteps in the last four years. Naturally, the PM would also have to answer his critics, particularly with regard to charges of crony capitalism in the Rafale deal.

It goes without saying that the BJP’s commitment to the construction of the Ram Temple stands, but surely, it is the party’s commitment to the common man and good goverenance which ought to be on display.

The writer is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author.