BJP: The exit feeling

Cong set to pocket Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh within reach

All exit polls on the Assembly elections, which were out on Friday, show the Congress winning Rajasthan hands down to oust the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government. But it is a mixed show in the two other BJP-ruled states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

With that, Rahul Gandhi appears to be emerging as a real challenger to Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha polls; and it seems he has turned the tide with the Congress winning or close to victory in the five states.

At least three polls give edge to the Congress and two to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh; the Raman Singhled BJP is ahead in Chhattisgarh in at least five polls, as against one which has put the Congress ahead. It is really a close fight in Madhya Pradesh.

Telangana appears to be re-electing K Chandrashekar-led Telangana Rashtra Samiti as seen from the first exit poll results coming out after the polling ended in the state, while the Mizo National Front appears set to recapture Mizoram after ten years of Congress rule.

The conduct of exit polls, which are carried out by contacting the voters immediately after they cast votes, was banned by the Election Commission through a gazette notification and as such they are illegal. Yet the TV channels went full blast on the results of their own exit polls or those carried out by others.

The exact outcome of the Assembly polls in the five states, hailed as a mini general election, will be available only on December 11 when the Election Commission declares the results.

TimesNow-CNX exit poll gives a conservative victory to the Congress in Rajasthan with 105 seats in the 200-member House, as against the BJP's 85. The Republic-C-Voter poll shows the Congress bagging 130 seats, as against the BJP's 57, while India Today-Axis My India shows the Congress getting 119 to 141 seats, as against the BJP's 55 to 72; and CSDC's tally is 110 versus 84.

In Madhya Pradesh, C-voter engaged by the Republic shows the Congress winning with 110 to 126 seats, as against 90-106 to the BJP while another agency, Jan Ki Baat, engaged by it claims the BJP is edging past with 108 to 128 seats, as against 95-115 to Congress.

The India Today-Axis shows a close fight in MP with the Congress getting 104-122 seats, as against BJP 102-120, while another network has given 112 to the Congress and 106 to the BJP; and two others have put the BJP ahead in Madhya Pradesh with 116 and 126 seats in the 230-member Assembly.

In Chhattisgarh, only Republic-C-Voter shows the Congress winning with 42 to 50 seats in the House of 90, as against the BJP pausing at 35-43, while most other exit polls show the BJP winning but only two show it getting a clear majority of 46 plus.

The Congress appears to be losing Mizoram which it has ruled for the last two terms; it seems it is failing in one state after the other in the North East since it was ousted from Assam.

It, however, still has a chance in the post-poll scenario as the MNF may fall short of a clear majority. As C-voter projected, MNF is winning 16-20 seats as against 14-18 to the Congress, 3-7 to ZPM and up to 3 to others.

In Telangana, the Congress gambit of having an alliance with the Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu seems to have backfired. This is because Naidu is perceived by some as the person who was always opposed to the formation of the separate state of Telangana.