WAKE UP CALL TO BJP IN ASSEMBLY EXIT POLL

The nation is all set for the verdict of the most powerful of major and significant State Assembly election results of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram in North-East India. The outcome of these elections assumes significance as they are considered to be the grand rehearsal for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections due in March/April of the next year. Actually, these elections can be considered as semi-finals for the final round of Lok Sabha elections. Now that voting for all states is over and many ‘exit poll’ results have also poured in, people seem to be generally confused and also amused. Surely, they are eager to see the actual results as the exercise of

‘exit polls’ has no longer remained a ‘trust-worthy’ instrument as many such exercises have gone cent per cent wrong in the near past.

Therefore, common people, political leaders and experts have started taking the results in a pinch of salt. I am also not banking my argument on the ‘exit poll’ results. Notwithstanding the predictions, the certainty remains that Modi and his men are not as popular and vote-snatchers as they were on the eve of 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Modi team had retained power in Madhya Pradesh and in Chhattisgarh at the end of 2013 Assembly elections for the third consecutive term and with a bigger margin of votes and seats. The Congress was reduced to absolute minority in these elections; that set the tone for the next Lok Sabha polls. Rajasthan has been witnessing a game of flip-flop for the last three elections. Since 2003, every election has seen the rulers changing. First, it was Vasundhara Raje. She was topped by Ashok Gehlot of the Congress in 2008. Vasundhara Raje recaptured the Rajasthan fort in 2013. So it seems to be the Congress’ turn to take the saddle.

Story of MP and Chhattisgarh

The story is different in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where the BJP with the present incumbents of the chief minister’s post, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh respectively, have been sitting pretty for the last 15 long years and the Congress is steadily losing its base in these states. Whether the story would continue this time too, or will the Congress be able to make a dent in the BJP bastion would be an interesting story to watch.

Telangana is the newest state of the Indian union that is witnessing fresh mandate for the State Assembly. Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, who won the steep battle to get statehood for ‘his people’ and also managed to retain Hyderabad as the capital of the state, seems to be sure to win as he has no formidable opposition. The Congress has failed to regain the trust and confidence of the Telangana population and the BJP was never a force to reckon with. Chandrababu Naidu is busy in building up his own Andhra Pradesh. As a result, decks seem to be clear for KCR and his Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS).

Unfortunately, no television channel or newspaper has taken any serious cognizance of elections in the Mizoram. The State that comes in the bunch of ‘Seven Sisters’ remains ignored in all walks of life. If this attitude of Indians continues in future, soon a time would come when the people of Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and other north-eastern states would lose their affinity with India. The fear is that if North-East Indians are emotionally detached from the mainland India, sooner than later these territories would become an easy prey for China.

Anyway, the election verdict would surely come as a ‘food for thought’ not for political watchers but for political activists. The moot question is if the BJP loses one or more states tomorrow, what would be its impact on the future politics of India, particularly the next Lok Sabha elections? If the BJP does not repeat its 2013 performance, it would mean that Modi and the BJP have lost ground at alarming level.

It’s right that if a party looses one or two states, it does not necessarily lose power in the Centre. Moreover, various surveys and opinion polls have consistently been showing that Indians have retained their confidence in Modi. However, the people do not attach similar faith in their State governments or local party leaders. This is alarming because if local leaders and representatives do not enjoy the support of the people, there is no guarantee that they would vote for Modi. In Indian voting system, people vote for their MPs and not to the prime minister directly. If party MPs are not returned, how would they elect Modi as their Prime Minister?

Deficit of seats in LS

If the BJP actually loses more than two State elections, it would mean that the alarm bell would start tolling for the BJP. The main challenge facing Modi at this hour is, in case, he does not do better than last elections, he would be stuck in the number game. In 2014, the BJP won 284 seats to achieve absolute majority in the House. Thus, he sat pretty as he did not require support of the constituents of NDA also for his survival. Now, if he has to repeat his performance, from where would he bring this figure? Apparently, he is not likely to repeat his numbers in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP had won 70 out of 80 seats. The states of Rajasthan and Gujarat had returned all seats in their states and Madhya Pradesh had lost only two seats.

Now, if the BJP wins fractured mandate, will Modi be able to repeat the show?

The writer is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS).