Government mulls the withdrawal of controversial GDP back series numbers

The government is contemplating over withdrawal of the controversial GDP (gross domestic product) back series numbers released by the NITI Aayog. A hint to this effect came from Aayog's vice-chairman, Rajiv Kumar that it was open to making improvements if factual and methodological errors were pointed out in the calculations of data.

The data released by the NITI Aayog sought to correct the growth of economy during the UPA years. It claimed the actual economy growth was an average 6.7 per cent in the four years of the first term of the UPA government from 200506 to 2008-09 as well as in the second term from 2009-10 to 2013-14 and not the earlier estimates of 8.1 per cent and 7 per cent respectively that were calculated with base year as 2004-05.

Not only the Congress protested but the economists and analysts expressed surprise at the Aayog claiming that the average growth rate of 7.4 per cent, calculated with base year as 2011-12, in the first four years of the NDA regime was better. The economists say it contradicts virtually all other data on the ‘real’ economy, including data on corporate sales, investment, credit growth and revenue from taxes. They are baffled from glaring anomalies in this calculation.

The Aayog officials are quietly working with these economists to correct the picture. Sources in the Aayog said an outright withdrawal of the data will be embarrassing for the government and hence an exercise is going on improve it with corrections on the calculations.