Vote percentage of BJP sees sharp dip; Cong not big gainer
With the BJP suffering losses in three key states, its vote share has taken a sharp dip in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh since the last Assembly polls in 2013, but all the votes do not seem to have gone to the Congress alone as other players have also reaped the gains.
The vote share loss is even bigger for the saffron party since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in which it had virtually swept all the three states by winning 62 out of 65 seats, as per the Election Commission data.
In Telanagana and Mizoram, it is the regional parties who have come out with flying colours, a post-2014 trend visible in many states with sizeable presence of non-BJP and non-Congress parties.
Political pundits said the trend indicates the regional satraps might play key roles in the 2019 general election for which attempts are already underway by non-BJP parties to put a united front against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid for a second term.
For Chattisgarh, the latest data showed the Congress getting 43.2% votes in this elections, up from 40.3% in the 2013 state polls and 38.37% in the 2014 general election, where the party won only one of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
In comparison, the BJP's loss has been wider with its vote share dipping from 41% in 2013 to 32.9% now. In 2014 general election, the party had got nearly 49% vote and 10 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats.
The voting share analysis shows some smaller parties and independents have managed to get more votes. While BSP had got 4.3% in 2013, its alliance with former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s party has now got about 10.7% votes.
Independents have also improved their performance from 5.3% to 6.3%. Similar trend was visible in Rajasthan where BJP’s votes have fallen from 45.2% in 2013 to 38.8% now. It was much higher at 55% in 2014, when the party won all 25 Lok Sabha seats from the state.
On the other hand, the Congress has improved its vote share from 33.1% in 2013 to 39.2% in 2018. It had managed to get nearly 30% votes despite losing on all seats in last parliamentary elections.
Independents have improved their assembly tally from 8.2% to 9.5%, while bagging larger number of seats.
The vote share situation is the most interesting in Madhya Pradesh, which saw the closest fight between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress’ share has improved from 36.4% in 2013 to 41.4% in 2018 assembly polls, while that of the BJP has come down from 44.9% to 41.3%, as per the latest update.
The BSP’s share here has actually fallen to 4.6%, while those of the independents has remained nearly same at over 5%. However, some smaller parties have made gains.
In Telanagana and Mizoram, it is the regional parties who have come out with flying colours, a post-2014 trend clearly visible in many states with sizeable presence of non-BJP and non-Congress parties.