COOPERATION AMIDST CONFLICT AT SUMMIT

Nations have permanent interests they uphold at all times. So, long before the Mamallapuram summit, it was clear that neither President Xi Jinping nor Prime Minister Narendra Modi would compromise their respective positions on key issues, Kashmir being one of them. There were no exchanges on the recent events in J and K, though Xi did brief Modi about what Imran Khan had complained about on his visit to Beijing on the eve of his departure for Mamallapuram. Beyond that Kashmir did not figure in the two-day informal summit. But that does not mean China would stop aiding Pakistan, its impoverished all-weather-friend, in multilateral forums as it did but failed in the UN Human Rights Commission, UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly. India was better at diplomatic deftness. The semi-failed Pakistan was scorned globally. Pakistan was the first state to allow the Chinese to run all over it implementing its controversial Belt and Road Initiative. BRI is more a strategic project than an altruistic effort by China to link the wider comity of nations into an uninterrupted communications and commercial chain. India has refused to join the BRI despite efforts by the Chinese. A part of the BRI passes through land in the Pak-Occupied Kashmir which Pakistan had gifted to the Chinese, though it was not hers to gift in the first place. Despite major differences on Kashmir, on the un-demarcated boundary, despite India’s covert and overt resistance to the Chinese hegemonic role in Asia, Xi and Modi could conduct diplomacy without any show of recriminations or bitterness. That is the essence of modern diplomacy, resolving disputes through talks rather than the exchange of fire at the borders. Because China is undoubtedly a super power in Asia, having beaten Japan to become the second largest economy, it routinely flexes its muscles in its neighbourhood, bullying Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc., annexing islands and encroaching on maritime rights. Thanks to the US determination to curb the Chinese superpower behavior, India has further responsibility to stand between an aggressive and intimidating China and its smaller neighbours. On the eve of the Xi visit, India conducted military exercises in Arunachal Pradesh, which caused the Chinese to lodge a formal protest on the ground that Arunachal was a disputed area. This again buttresses the point that despite several differences, the two leaderships are mature enough not to fuel tensions. Indeed, the real gain from such summits as the one in Wuhan last year and Mamallapuram this year Modi has accepted XI’s invite for the one next year is that the diplomats of the two countries can build on the good vibes between the two leaders in a spirit of cooperation to resolve the more ticklish issues. Optics also matter.

For Xi, who is confronted by a difficult dilemma by the student protests raging for months in Hong Kong. Using force will jeopardize the Chinese image while allowing the protests to continue would undermine his own position at home and damage Hong Kong as a key financial hub. For Modi, it was important to soften Xi after the strong-arm tactics in Kashmir which constituted a clear blow to Pakistan’s stated, albeit false, claims on the Valley. Also, India had riled China, reviving the off-on Quad, a grouping of Japan, Australia, US and India, but upgrading its meetings from foreign secretary to foreign minister-level. The first such upgraded meeting took place in New York on the sidelines of the UNGA meeting. That its objective is to safeguard against the rising Chinese superpower ambitions is not hidden from anyone, least from the Chinese themselves. But then it is also notable that while Xi came to the summit after granting an audience of Imran Khan, he left Mamallapuram for Nepal for a day-long visit before return home. Once a virtual satellite of India, Nepal has now embraced Chinese aid and influence, something India with a much smaller economy is in no position to match. Unless India grows its economy, its voice will be attenuated in world capitals. Democratic India can stand up to China because it is still a huge country with a reasonably capable army and with over a billion people. Unless diplomacy is backed by a strong and growing economy, leader-to-leader contacts can be of little value. The decision to set up a ministerial level trade and economic mechanism to further resolve differences over one-sided trade may be of little help unless India is able to upgrade manufacturing to take on the Chinese completion. And, notably, the threat of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership still lurks. In sum, Modi’s biggest challenge is to revive the economy while mending fences with our neighbours.