Exchanging vows of friendship at Motera
Critics’ opinion on this gala will be bound by the achievements that follow
If you had any doubts about the business expectations and strategic intent of visiting US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, they were made absolutely clear on day one of their engagement at Ahmedabad’s Motera stadium.
The chemistry between the two leaders are today at their best comfort levels due to the fact that both believe in each other’s transactional approach for shared prosperity and security of their respective countries.
Even as the most enduring images of Trump and wife Melania Trump were their moments at Gandhiji’s Sabarmati ashram and the crowds that cheered them at Modi’s call, the Indian Prime Minister’s efforts to ensure that his home state of Gujarat literally rolled out a red carpet for the Trumps had complete success.
If the Trumps showed their willingness to endure the Indian weather (35 degree celsius), Modi wanted to live up to his promise to the US President that a record gathering would cheer him at the world’s newest and biggest cricket stadium. Perhaps, Trump mistook Modi’s expectation of more than a “lakh” of people at Motera for a “million” as the Americans are less familiar with Indian penchant for “lakhs and crores” than “hundred thousand and million.”
By an official count, the crowds at the Sardar Patel stadium at Motera were estimated at 1.15 lakh (or 1,15,000) a tall figure by the US standard for any political gathering. In fact, the Motera reception was conceived for the US President because he had been greatly impressed by the gathering that the Indian PM could attract at Texas’ “Howdy Modi” event last September.
Surely, there was political self-interest at play for Trump to travel great miles as he seeks re-election as US President for a second term after staving off impeachment process by the Democrats.
Analysts have always pointed that the small groups like the Indian-Americans (with roots in states like Gujarat) have played a big role in battle-ground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where the Republicans and Democrats have increased their electoral votes in the presidential elections to change the outcome.
So much so, the US presidential candidates bother more about these small states rather than the big ones, which may number between 20 to 22 but are already clearly committed to either the Republicans or Democrats. But beyond the electoral vote calculations, Trump has never hidden his fascination for pageantry and spectacular shows that have characterised Modi’s public engagements.
“Namaste Trump” would certainly be chronicled as one such well-organised big do. As Arun K Singh, former Indian ambassador to the US noted in a column, the Indian strategy could be to play up to Trump’s vanity to showcase the country’s aspirational outreach — by according a reception that will enable him to claim that he had crowds beyond what his predecessors — Bill Clinton attracted in 2000, George Bush did in 2006 or Barrack
Obama had during his India visit in 2010 and 2015.
But on a serious note, Trump showed that he is sensitive to India’s defence concerns, particularly about Pakistan’s role in promoting jihadi terrorism. His public pronouncement from the Gujarat soil that the US was working at India’s behest to pressurise Pakistan to curb these terrorist groups and its efforts were beginning to show result will be seen as weather in Modi’s cap.
Trump’s declaration from the same venue that US firms will get three billion dollar worth of pending contracts to sell military helicopters to India is to show that his administration has done much than its predecessors in the transfer of latest military technology to India for bolstering its deterrent powers.
As Modi noted his address at Motera, Trump is keen on “Making American Great Again” and his government wants to push more Indian trade to the US by getting access to produce that will made under “Make in India.”
Trump wants to revive manufacturing in America and Modi wants to do it in India. Many see a lot of contradiction in their objectives but their shared perception about China’s economic and military domination in the Indo-Pacific region should give ample room to work together.
Of course, those who are critical of Modi and Trump will dismiss the platitudes expressed by the two leaders at Motera. They will look for concrete achievements after the summit-level talks on day two in New Delhi on Tuesday, February 25. Already, the opposition, particularly the Congress, has come up with questions to rate Trump’s visit — whether Modi would raise with him the issues of H-1B visas, Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) scheme as well as the agreement between the United States and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
With the talk of the US preparing to sign a deal with Taliban on February 29, Modi is expected to lay bare New Delhi’s concern regarding the stability of Afghanistan.
Trump has reserved to a later date the possibility of a big trade deal, which is under discussion for nearly two years. Both sides have lowered expectations of any major trade deal coming through. The reason: huge differences remain over a range of tariffs from both sides, besides market access for US goods including diary products.
Of course, the easily do-able thing would be that India and the US revise their 2015 joint vision statement on the Indo-Pacific to increase their cooperation on freedom of navigation to contain China.
Just as optics are as important as outcome, Ahmedabad’s Motera Stadium event should not remain the only message that Trump and Modi can offer on behalf of the world’s oldest democracy and the world’s largest one, respectively.
The writer is a former Senior Associate Editor of Hindustan Times and Political Editor of Deccan Herald, New Delhi