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Corona levels with Mumbai?

For the last 14 days, daily count of new cases was between 1,000 and 1,400, which civic officials see as indicative of a plateau

For the last 14 days, in Mumbai, the number of Covid-19 cases each day has hovered between 1,000 to 1,400, which civic officials see as an indication of a plateau having been reached. Further, they feel there is a chance that by June-end, the number of daily cases may drop by more than 200.

Fourteen days is typically the duration of plateauing, and the graph of corona cases in the city for this period shows that the number of cases has not crossed 1,400. Health experts have said cases in Mumbai have come down significantly in the past four weeks and a flattening of the curve is expected shortly. However, there could still be a spike in July, so there is need for caution.

Currently, Mumbai accounts for 51 per cent of overall cases reported across the state. However, the daily rise in cases in the city has dropped, compared to the overall state figures in the past four weeks. Mumbai accounted for 62.29 per cent of the state’s new cases on May 14, followed by 56.47 per cent on May 28, 49.06 per cent on June 4 and 30.89 per cent on June 20.

Additional Municipal Commissioner Suresh Kakani said they were closely monitoring the number of corona cases recorded after the Cyclone Nisarg, following which they assumed the situation in Mumbai had plateaued. “We will be monitoring the cases for next two to three days and the plateau in Mumbai cases is a positive sign. Moreover, Mumbai's share in the percentage of the total cases in the state has dropped,” he said.

“We are expecting cases might increase after Unlock 2.0 as trains are operational and many employees from private and government hospitals are travelling. So there is a chance of person to person transmission. By the end of June, we will get a clear picture,” Kakani said.

Infectious Diseases Specialist Dr Om Shrivastava said the curve in Mumbai would stabilise soon and the number of cases in Mumbai had come down significantly in the past four weeks.

“We may expect a flattening of the curve soon. But at the same time, in the rest of Maharashtra, the number of cases may rise. In July, the number of cases may keep rising and we need to be more cautious and observant. Once we get through these months, we will be in a position to see where we are headed,” he said.

Health experts said, to an extent, the rise in the cases should not be a cause of worry, as there are different trends and phenomena in different areas in the state. While there is a plateau in some parts, others are emerging as hotspots. “As long as we are ready with the infrastructure to handle cases and treat patients as per the severity of their condition, this should not be a cause for concern. It is difficult to predict when we will see a downward trend, but the next two weeks are important and by the end of June, we will have a clearer picture,” he said.