COVID-19 effects may accelerate energy transition: Moody's predicts
The COVID-19 lockdown experience of reduced commuting and business travel alongside better air quality and family time may deliver lasting changes in energy consumption, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday.
Recessionary forces and weaker long term growth expectations will place pressure on both corporate and household demand, it said in the latest credit outlook report.
At the same time, the risk of behavioural change along with increasing use of biofuels, electric vehicles and improved engine efficiency adds to the likelihood of oil demand eroding over time.
Economic outlook, behavioural shifts and decarbonisation trends combine to increase the challenge of forecasting oil demand. "We consider scenarios for oil demand going into 2021 which are three to five million barrels per day (bpd) lower than 2019 levels as COVID disruption limits oil-based activities."
The strength of post-COVID economic growth will determine oil demand growth drivers, said Moody's. If economic growth does not offset the potential behavioural and other changes impacting oil demand, it could take a long time to recover to 2019 levels with an increased risk that demand already peaked in 2019.
The increased uncertainty and supply-demand imbalance creates a new context for investing in new oil developments that challenge traditional business models, it said.
The potential for an accelerated structural shift in oil demand increases the challenges of forecasting the price of oil, undermining the investment case for new projects with a long lead in times for when oil is produced in the future.
Besides, power markets show a preference for a cleaner generation as demand falls. COVID-19 could have a ratchet e ffect, limiting any rebound i n coal generation and accelerating the decline of coal in the United States and Europe by a few years.
Coal generation has continued to decline while renewables have shown more resilience across major markets in the United States, Europe, China and India.