Most indicators flashing red. There’s trouble ahead

Russia, China, US & Pakistan are discussing the future of Afghanistan but India has been excluded

Things are falling apart. A former Enforcement Directorate official lobbies to join a political party immediately after retirement. So have many other law enforcement officers, even judges. That does throw into question all the sensitive politically-loaded cases that were assigned to them just before they retired.

A minister calls industrialists anti-nationals merely because they do not (and rightly so) like the shape his draft policy on ecommerce is taking. This is even while youth unemployment is among the highest in the world (see chart). The ecommerce and retail sectors (along with logistics) are among the biggest employers in the country. Is the government trying to shrink industry and promote unemployment?

The government invokes provisions of the Citizen Amendment Act (CAA) to underscore its commitment to Hindus who are stranded in Afghanistan. Did India not take in refugees in the past without the CAA? Remember Bangladesh, or the earlier crisis in Myanmar. Is the CAA really required? Are past capabilities forgotten? Will the religious bias that has been introduced in the CAA help India in its global relations?

It does appear that all reason has been thrown to the winds. The objective is winning elections and appeasing vote banks, even if it means further weakening the country.

As Kaushik Basu, former chief economic adviser to the government in India, and currently Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca and New York, states in his tweet, “Clearly India doesn’t belong where it has ended up. High youth unemployment is very damaging for a nation. We must put politics aside and implement measures to rectify this.”

Religious discomfort

It then comes as no surprise to political analysts that Russia, China, the US, and Pakistan have begun discussions on the future of Afghanistan. India has been excluded.

In its attempts to get closer to the US, it agreed to be a foil to China. That has left both Russia and China miffed.

India’s much-in-evidence prejudices against minority communities has upset both Christian and Muslim populations (remember the protests in Qatar, Malaysia and even the Christian world when it heard of the death of Fr Stan Swamy). If India continues to recklessly provoke Muslim and Christians further, the marginalisation of India will be swift, even unforgiving. Both the Christians and the Muslims account for 40 per cent of the world population. Hinduism accounts for just 15 per cent.

The government has overlooked the fact that India is an amalgam of cultures. It has always remained so. Some of the biggest wealth generators in India were Muslim and other non-Hindu traders who plied the oceans to trade with other countries even 1,500 years ago (even earlier in ~50 BC), before the birth of Islam or Christianity. Hindus were petrified by the very thought of crossing the oceans. It was nonHindus who traded with the world and made India extremely wealthy, not the Hindu upper castes.

Has it forgotten that – unlike Western and middle eastern armies which promoted religion even by the sword – Orientals do not believe in promoting religion (except for Emperor Ashoka), or even political ideology? The East has always been accommodating, even embracing of cultures.

Dismantling global Hindutva

Expectedly, almost as a backlash against the government’s moves to push Hinduism, some thinkers – backed by departments of around 60 universities – have decided to hold a series of discussions on how to dismantle the global Hindutva movement. Some of the universities include Northwestern, Berkeley, Chicago, Columbia, Harvard, Pennsylvania, Princeton, and Stanford. In retaliation, Hindu groups have begun lobbying against the holding of this event, and want it stopped.

Expect the issue to further polarise India against other nations. When ideologies dictate business practices, the fallout is invariably quite messy.

Market churn

Add to this the huge churn taking place in global markets. The US is moving towards tapering its excessive currency float. That in turn has sucked out money from all markets. The result is a collapse in asset values, which may continue to tumble.

This would not have been very serious if India had already been a recipient of foreign direct investments (FDI). But the government waited for too long to remedy the aversion for investing in India. It finally took the step of ensuring that no retrospective legislation will take place. Whether that will suffice, remains to be seen. Investor confidence remains skittish even today.

The government has painted itself in a corner through its imperious actions. It must now find ways to undo the damage done.

Investments needed

Without FDI inflows on the one hand, and a falling market on the other, the fate of the government’s own disinvestment programme remains uncertain.

The government’s failure in focussing on education and healthcare will have horrifying consequences in the coming years. The core of healthcare is doctors. Even the six centres of the prestigious AIIMS are plagued by shortages of key staff. States The Ken, it was “5583% . . . until 2019.”

Similarly, if school education is not addressed, don’t expect economic growth to be sustainable. A nation does not grow economically robust merely by promoting religious chants.

There could be more trouble ahead. Last week, Skymet downgraded Monsoon 2021 to below normal. According to its analysis, there are 60 per cent chances of the rains being below normal, at 94 per cent of LPA.

The mood could get darker if the government persists in introducing new business rules that shrink industry, hence employment, or darken the investment climate.

It does appear that all reason has been thrown to the winds. The objective is winning elections and appeasing vote banks, even if it means further weakening the country