Delimitation, indigenous identity, and minority votes may inuence Assam’s last phase of voting
The BJP’s regional allies have more at stake in the third and nal phase of the Lok Sabha election in Assam with the focus on reclaiming the ‘parliamentary space’ for representatives of indigenous or majority communities, believed to have been made easier by the 2023 delimitation.
Covering four constituencies — Barpeta, Dhubri, Guwahati, and Kokrajhar — in central and western Assam, this phase will also see the Congress pitted against more than one of its 15 partners in the United Opposition Forum, Assam (UOFA) apart from rivals in the BJP-led NDA.
The phase is headlined by Dhubri, which Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, the chief of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) seeks to retain for the fourth straight time.
Bengali-origin Muslims constitute more than 70% of the voters in the constituency bordering Bangladesh, often used as a metaphor by indigenous groups to highlight the touchy issue of “illegal immigration” in Assam.
Mr. Ajmal, whose family is known for a global perfume business, penetrated this erstwhile Congress bastion in 2009, four years after forming the AIUDF as a challenge to the UPA government for failing to prevent the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act from being scrapped. The Act was seen as a shield against the harassment of Muslims in the name of the detection and deportation of foreigners.
For Mr. Ajmal, 2024 is likely to be his toughest test as he faces former Assam Minister and MLA Rakibul Hussain of the Congress
and Zabed Islam of the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), one of the two allies of the BJP. The other is the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL). While Mr. Hussain is condent of unfurling the Congress ag again in Dhubri after 15 years, the AGP is banking on the possible division of votes between the AIUDF and the Congress to win the seat for the rst time.
The AGP, though, is surer of the Barpeta seat that underwent a demographic shift after the 2023 delimitation. Muslim-dominated Assembly segments were hived o¡ from Barpeta and added to Dhubri while Hindu-dominated segments were added from adjoining parliamentary constituencies. “We fullled the promise of giving the AGP a winnable seat,” Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said a few days ago.
The AGP has had a parliamentary drought since Joseph Toppo won the Sonitpur (now Tezpur) seat in 2009. The chances of the party’s Barpeta candidate and former Minister Phani Bhushan Choudhury to ll the void are said to be high because of a likely split in the anti-NDA votes among three UOFA candidates — Deep Bayan of Congress, Manoranjan Talukdar of CPI(M), and Abul Kalam Azad of Trinamool Congress.
The UOFA has a similar problem in the Kokrajhar seat reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. Here, Congress candidate Garjan Mashahary faces Gauri Sankar Sarania of the Trinamool apart from Joyanta Basumatary of the UPPL, Kampa Borgoyari of the BPF, and Binita Deka of the Gana Suraksha Party.
Kokrajhar is the nerve centre of the Bodoland Territorial Region where the Bodos — the largest plains tribe in the northeast — constitute about 35% of the population. The area has been witness to conicts between the Bodos and at least 19 non-Bodo communities, who largely helped incumbent GSP’s Naba Kumar Sarania win the seat in 2014 and 2019.
Mr. Sarania’s candidature was rejected this time after the Gauhati High Court found his ST certicate to be invalid.
The absence of Mr. Sarania is expected to improve the chances of a Bodo candidate being elected from the Kokrajhar seat after 10 years. Mr. Basumatary, an MLA, believes the supporters of the UPPL and the BJP will help him get a Lok Sabha berth.
The BPF, on the other hand, is banking on the “misrule” and “anti-minority face” of the UPPL to spring a surprise.
Guwahati has the fewest candidates — eight — among the third-phase seats. The constituency is set to witness a straight ght between Bijuli Kalita Medhi of the BJP and Mira Borthakur Goswami of the Congress, thus ensuring a woman represents it for the fourth straight term.