The Indian Express (Delhi Edition)
Aleppo falls apart
The rebels face the collapse of their last big urban stronghold
WHEN Russia dispatched its warplanes to prop up the dictatorship of Bashar al-assad, Barack Obama warned Moscow that its Syrian adventure was doomed to fail. Russia will get “stuck in a quagmire and it won’t work”, Mr Obama confidently predicted in October 2015. Russia’s air force has since proven the American president profoundly wrong.
On November 28th pro-government forces backed by Russian bombers finally punched through rebel lines in the east of Aleppo. The breakthrough came two weeks after pro-regime forces launched an operation to recapture the rebels’ last big urban stronghold. With the regime now in control of at least a third of the city’s east, the fall of Aleppo looks almost certain.
For months the regime has sought to strangle the city’s rebel-held east into submission. A siege has slowly sapped the strength and morale of its defenders. As the blockade tightened, Russian and Syrian warplanes relentlessly bombed civilian infrastructure, destroying hospitals, schools and bakeries in a bid to drain support for opposition fighters by making life unbearable for the east’s 250,000 or so remaining civilians. These tactics, which have forced rebels to surrender in other parts of the country, have crippled eastern Aleppo. Food rations have almost run out and medical supplies are low. With the city’s hospitals destroyed, doctors now treat patients in the basements of homes.
Spearheaded by thousands of Hizbullah and Iraqi militiamen, this week’s swift advance of pro-regime forces has driven thousands of terrified civilians from their homes. They face a grim choice: stay in the east and face the bombs, or flee into areas controlled by a government that has arrested and tortured its opponents since the start of the war in 2011.
Most have chosen the former. As a result, residents in the east say apartment blocks that once housed five families now house as many as 20. So Russian and Syrian air strikes, which have killed hundreds of civilians in recent weeks, will prove even more lethal as the shrinking rebel enclave becomes more crowded.
The regime’s advance elicited the usual flurry of empty statements from Western officials. Boris Johnson, Britain’s foreign secretary, tweeted: “Devastating assault on eastern Aleppo — immediate ceasefire needed. Russia & Iran must use influence on Assad regime to end violence now.” He appeared to have forgotten that both Russia and Iran are directly involved in the bombardment of Aleppo.
America, its allies and the UN have all repeatedly failed to stop the slaughter or alleviate the suffering in Aleppo. Ceasefires have broken down and peace talks have collapsed. Russia and Syria continue to block UN requests to allow aid into the besieged east. Outmanoeuvred,
Once Aleppo falls, Assad will control all the main urban centres. Pro-regime forces will then be able to turn their guns on the pockets of resistance around Damascus.
Western diplomats have discussed lifting the siege by digging tunnels or sending drones to air-drop food and medical supplies. A lack of political will among their leaders makes both options improbable.
Mr Assad’s government says it wants to take Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, before Donald Trump takes office.
Once it falls, Mr Assad will control all the country’s main urban centres. Pro-regime forces will then be able to turn their guns on the pockets of resistance around Damascus, the main highway from Homs to Aleppo and the rebel-held province of Idlib. With rebel forces in no shape to regroup, there is little to stop them.