New alliances, rebels and AAP throw Goa contest wide open

MOTORBIKE PILOT Kamlakanth explains the Goa elections in one line. “Sabne net feka hain,” he borrows from the state’s fisherfolk language. “Machli lekin bahut difficult lagta.”

In a state familiar with hung assemblies and President’s rule, Saturday's assembly election looks close to call with traditional allies now split, and new players on the field.

Every party sounds confident. Manohar Parrikar talks of winning 26 of the 36 the BJP is contesting. Vinay Tendulkar, BJP state president, says “28, counting two independents”.

AAP talks of a full majority. “We are the only party contesting all 40 seats,” says Oscar Rebello, former convener of Goa Bachao Abhiyan and now AAP campaign manager. And Dr Chellakumar of the AICC says, “He [Parrikar] hijacks everything from us. He is hijacking our projections too. We are 26.”

“This is the toughest fight Goa has seen. For the first time, one cannot guess,” says Rahul Tripathi, social science professor. Several former BJP and Congress faces are going independent, besides the regional alliance of RSS rebel Subhash Velingkar. The NCP is fighting independently of the Congress.

But in the Congress office, leaders admit they “show confidence with great nervousness”. In the BJP, Parrikar has told local media “this is going to be a watershed election”. One challenge is the GSM of Velingkar, who has spoken of a “revenge vote bank”, as described by a Konkani daily. The alliance is contesting 33 seats (MGP 25, GSM 5, Shiv Sena 3).

In a state known for “musical chairs” politics — a phrase used by Narendra Modi in Panjim — “village politics, panchayat politics, familiarity, and promises matter”, says Tripathi. “Besides, everyone knows everyone. Every fifth house has had a relative either as chief minister, or at least knows other house which did. So candidates come doubly screened, mostly through Goa gossip filters.”

“In Goa, no constituency has more than 20,000 to 23,000 voters. Even a bunch of 30 voters can play havoc, if they get influenced at the last minute,” says an AAP worker.

Strategic Salcete

In any Goa election, this district with eight constituencies sees most election engineers focusing their strategies. The Christian community is based in this “Rome of the East”, the first district in India where conversion took place. Even AAP chose Salcete to start its campaign, say locals. The Church, the biggest influence on the 25 per cent Christian community, too reads the mood here first, says a priest with the Archdiocese.

The Congress camp has some “doubts” but bravely announces seven out of eight. The BJP too is wary. “It’s got to do with a lot of negative propaganda Congress has been spreading... it’s not right to target us as communal. We are looking at four,” says a leader.

After Rajnath Singh had ended his speech at Cuncolim, he had returned to the mike to say: “Please do not listen to parties saying BJP is communal... In Goa, we have never had any episode which has been communal.”

Mining, casinos, language

For the new regional alliance with three separate manifestos, medium of instruction in schools is the main issue. Velingkar fights only on the Konkani/marathi plank.

The Congress says let the parents and child decide the medium. Besides, taking on English-medium schools is taking on the Archdiocese. The BJP calls for promoting regional languages while ensuring grants to Archdiocese-run schools go on. Students in English medium schools, incidentally, are mostly from low-income, Hindu households.

On casinos, which many locals feel “at least gives job opportunities” to Goans, there is ambiguity. The Congress says they will end these, Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar promises to “dump them in some interior of the sea”, while AAP'S Oscar Rebello notes that “a social evil is a social evil”.

The BJP promises “Rs 15,000 crore funding” for Goa. In Bechaulim, a voter at a rally says, “It’s the only party that wants us to keep moving. They are building bridges everywhere, giving subsidised petrol.” The Church has questioned “infrastructure capital without consideration for ecological or socio-economic growth of a Goan”. And when parties talk of mining, “mining-dependent” unemployed are their targeted vote bank.

AAP’S arrival

The BJP and the Congress insist the election is only between them — both Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi avoided mentioning AAP in their last election pitch. “Look, Goans know an outsider. Goa is very stylish. AAP men and women are standing with brooms and placard on street corners. This will not work here,” says the BJP’S Tendulkar.

In both camps though, poll managers agree AAP will eat away a “difficult vote share”.

Raju Nayak, editor of Lokmat, Goa’s most read regional daily, sees a long-term strategy in AAP coming here. “Goa is where everything new is first launched. With a cosmopolitan space, and with Christians in majority every corporate takes Goa as their experiment ground. AAP is no different, Goans love to experiment,” he says.

At AAP’S election office, Rebello says: “People are frustrated. A new party will be the only choice.” With a network of activists and being the place where RTI Act saw its first workshops, Goa was a natural “backyard” for AAP, say members. “We went into a shell after the parliamentary debacle. But we returned after 2015, after we won Delhi in the second attempt. That is when we thought, maybe there is still a market for our ideas,” says Rebello, adding they first reached “out to activists and people with similar views”.

CM faces

AAP has projected Elvis Gomes; Congress and BJP are yet to project a name. While Laxmikant Parsekar is incumbent CM, Nitin Gadkari and Amit Shah have projected Parrikar as the “man in control”. On the Congress side are at least four former CMS — Pratapsingh Rane, Luizinho Faleiro, Ravi Nayak, and Digambar Kamat.

Express A BJP meeting Thursday.