Trump, war and peace

Strategic map of Middle East will be reshaped. US president’s Islamophobia will play an ominous role

IF FOREIGN POLICY during the terms of President George W. Bush and Barack Obama was marked by the “9/11 wars”, then that of Donald Trump will be judged, to a significant extent, by how well, or how badly, the new leader handles the continuation of those conflicts, the “ISIS wars”.

First signs are not encouraging. Trump’s campaign was marked by anti-muslim rhetoricwhichpromptedfearandangerthroughout the Middle East. Ever since he has done little to allay the impression of a leader who either does not understand that a successful counter-terrorism policy involves avoiding the polarising language and actions which act as a recruiting sergeant for extremists or is so prejudiced that he doesn’t care.

Among the first to react after his election, were a series of websites and propagandists linked with ISIS and al Qaeda. In Yemen, one prominent al Qaeda activist argued the Trump victory proved that the group’s view of US values was correct, while an ISIS linked site welcomed the prospect of a crackdown in the US which would reveal the nation’s latent Islamophobia.

Fast forward three months and one of the new president’s first acts is to send special forces into Yemen on what appears to be a poorly prepared mission which cost the life of a US serviceman, a $75m aircraft and significant credibility. This first strike in Trump’s new counter-terrorist capacity indicates where the new president is likely to take his policies in the Middle East and beyond.

That the sentiments and views of the near billion Muslims living between Morocco and Pakistan, from the Caucasus to the Sudan, are of limited interest, is already evident. Obama reached out to the Muslim world with his Cairo speech in 2009. Trump has tried — and may still succeed in — suspending the arrival of refugees from seven Muslim-majority countries. These include Syria, but not Saudi Arabia, from where two-thirds of the 9/11 hijackers came, or Pakistan, the source of a series of plots targeting the US over the last decade.

The Yemen operation, as well as signaling that torture may be used once again along with clandestine prisons, indicates that in the coming years wars are likely to see a mixture of vigorous if unpredictable action with limited regard for US or international law. This will mean more drone strikes, bombing campaigns, possible special forces raids, assistance