Caste and vote divide, not vikas, are what drive local chatter

AT A restaurant in Banda, three people are discussing the election in their seat. The youngest, Malhotra, says the fight in Banda Sadar is between the BJP and the BSP and the BJP will win because the Muslim votes will split between the BSP and the SP. The other two believe Muslims will not allow their votes to get divided and will consolidate behind the Sp-congress.

Asked for their names, one of the other two only says: “You know I can only be a Muslim or a Yadav.”

In mohallas, in marketplaces and among backroom managers, caste and community are once again the theme. Few discussions among voters take note of promises made in star campaigners’ speech and distributed from door to door. “Arrey, who take them seriously? How many times have they made such promises?” says Kailash Chandra Nishad of Beri Paliya Karwi near Chitrakoot.

Across Banda and Chitrakoot districts, no group of people seems to agree on the same party or coalition. At Attara’s marketplace, one of the largest in Bundelkhand, customers at Rakesh Kumar Gupta’a cycle shop are of the view that the Sp-congress will win, while two workers in his shop feel the BSP will win Uttar Pradesh, but Gupta insists the BJP will be the single largest party. In a nearby village, vegetable vendor Rambabu Raikwad says rural areas in Bundelkhand will vote for haathi while housewife Shyamlili Nishad feels “Modiji” may make it.

Most agree on two things: “Akhilesh ne kaam kiya hein ”and“Modi koshish kar rahe hein desh badalne ke liye” . Will that be reason enough to win them votes? No one is sure. “It’s caste. Yadavs want the SP to retain power, so they will vote for even Congress candidates fielded by the gathbandhan. Jatavs want Mayawati, and upper castes back the BJP. But it’s Muslims who will decide which party should rule UP, which is why the BJP wants the Muslim vote divided,” says Kamlesh, a student of political science.

In an election where parties are identified with certain castes, every party is eyeing additional votes. BJP leaders express confidence about the support of the most backward castes or non-jatav Dalits; the Spcongress wants a share of upper castes, nonyadav OBCS and Dalits to compensate for a perceived loss in Muslim votes.

Mayawati’s caste combination formula focuses deeply on Muslim support. What it does gain from this community could either work to its advantage, or divide the Muslim vote. With Muslims voting in the hope of defeating the BJP, they are likely to back the candidate that looks the strongest against the BJP in each constituency.

“That makes the election complicated and confusing. But the fact remains that it's not development nor the governance record that matters in this election,” says Dayaprasad, an SP leader.