The spectre of war

Trump’s policies will renew chances of a violent confrontation with Iran. This could strengthen hardliners and undercut moderates like Rouhani

view, it is feasible to say that military relations between Moscow and Tehran could have wider consequences beyond the Syrian theatre. In other words, despite the arrival of Trump at the White House, the new dynamic between Moscow and Tehran is likely to shape the Middle East for some time to come.

So, either in the form of shaping alliances or establishing zones of influence, it is certain that Iran is developing a more assertive foreign policy in the Middle East. But to sustain Iran’s regional position, the Iranian president Hassan Rouhani will need to reach some form of modus vivendi beyond the nuclear deal with the Trump administration. All this is worrying in itself.

Making matters worse, however, is not only the hardening of the US position towards Iran, but the fact that Iranian hawks would welcome a chance to entangle America in a long war, even if their country becomes the greatest victim of such a conflict; some in Iran would willingly sacrifice Iran to bring about a cataclysmic denouement in the Middle East.

A Us-iran confrontation that might even lead to open conflict may provide just such an opportunity. The biggest worry is also the reaction of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in case Rouhani is not re-elected in the next Iranian presidential elections in May 2017. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals continue to go out of their way to remind Trump that this political-military organisation of some 1,20,000 armed men is a dangerous adversary of the US. In just the last few weeks, top IRGC commanders taunted the United States as a “paper tiger” that should give up its claim of being a superpower, all the while lampooning Trump as an “amateur”.

While it is true that anti-americanism is a core part of the worldview of the top IRGC leadership, they are far from suicidal. A more forceful US stance against their policies is likely to shape their calculations. But there are already signs that the IRGC bosses believe it is essential they reduce provocative actions against the US, especially as the Trump team formulates its Iran policy. It took the Revolutionary Guard’s generals some 20 years to impose their rule on the Iranian people: They are not ready to let go of their power.

This explains why the Trump administration is considering a proposal that could lead to potentially designating Iran’s powerful IRGC as a terrorist organisation. It could strengthen the hardliners, undercut moderates like Rouhani, and encourage Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria to curtail action against the Islamic State. One way or another, uncertainty over Trump’s Iran and regional policies, Iran’s presidential election in May and economic hardship that might lead to street protests will force the establishment to give more power to the IRGC. We need to wait and see how things will progress in the Middle East with the new Trump administration, but one thing is certain: This will lead to a much more militaristic strand of politics in Tehran.

The writer is professor and executive director, Mahatma Gandhi Centre, Jindal Global University