2/3rds sweeps now the norm in large states

Jammu & Kashmir in October.

The graph plots Assembly standings from 2005, the year Jharkhand held elections, and the number of states with at least 70 MLAS rose to 20. It shows the number of two-thirds majorities (expressed as a percentage of the 20 Assemblies) that were in place after the last election results in any given calendar year. It is not, however, a representation of only the election results that year; each year’s figure also accounts for previous elections. Some of the two-thirds majorities that were in place in 2005, for example, had been elected as far back as in 2001.

On March 11, UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab joined states that already had two-thirds majorities — West Bengal, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Odisha, Kerala, Assam and Delhi. Maharashtra does not count: the two-thirds shared between the BJP and the Shiv Sena is a post-poll majority, not an electoral one.

In defining two-thirds, the trend demands that an allowance be made up to 64% rather than stick to the rigid conversion of 66.67. It is a small allowance in arithmetic terms — the equivalent of two seats in a hypothetical Assembly of 75 — but significant for capturing the trend, for it enables the inclusion of Punjab, Kerala and Gujarat in the current list, and a number of other elected Assemblies at earlier stages.

The upward trend began in 2013. In the beginning of that year, 6 of the 20 Assemblies had a two-thirds electoral majority. In fact, in the stretch chosen for the graph, the number of two-thirds majorities remained around the one-third mark until 2013.

The count doubled from 6 to 12 over a phase during which only Tamil Nadu (2011) dropped out of the list in 2016. Of the other 5 states that came into this phase with twothirds majorities from previous polls, 4 repeated their sweeps: West Bengal (2011, 2016), Bihar (2010, 2015) Odisha (2009, 2014) and Assam (2011, 2016). The sixth such state, Gujarat, is yet to go for elections in this phase.

MP and Rajasthan entered the list in 2013, followed by Delhi in 2015, Kerala in 2016, and UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand now. That’s 7 new states minus Tamil Nadu, or a gain of 6.

If Gujarat delivers a two-thirds majority verdict later this year, the count will remain 12; if not, it will drop to 11. Either way, it will be over the halfway mark. The frontier has been breached.