The effect of attacks on elections

TERROR & LE PEN

Days before Round 1 of the French presidential election, a lone terrorist killed a police officer and injured two others on the Champs Élysées in Paris, the latest in a string of terror strikes that have battered the country since 2012. Immediately, there was discussion whether the attack might boost the prospects of Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front. While Le Pen’s entry into the runoff with the centrist Emmanuel Macron was predicted by many, the first polls out Thursday seemed to suggest she has started her campaign for the May 7 vote more strongly than expected. So can terrorist attacks alter the outcome of elections, boosting the prospects of some candidates?

Studies have found evidence to suggest terrorism can shift support to rightwing parties by 1 or 2 percentage points. However, the research also underscores that the effect of terrorism on elections is complex. It can create greater polarisation, which could, in Le Pen’s case, hit her ability to pick off leftwing voters in the second round.

Rightward Shift

A 2008 study in Israel found that a terror attack 3 months before an election had voters in that area shifting toward rightwing parties by an average 1.35 percentage points. However, in parts of the country that did not experience the attack, voters who already leaned right tended to go further in that direction, while left-leaning areas reduced their support for rightwing parties.

Will Le Pen Gain?

In Israel, another study estimated, terrorist attacks swung the 1988 and 1996 elections to the right-wing Likud Party, which won both by small margins. But Israel and France are different.

In the first round of voting in France, Le Pen, while dominating the north and south of the country, did poorly in Paris. She got less than 5% of the votes in the capital, where Macron and the Republican François Fillon led. In the second round, polarisation could hurt her, when she would need to draw on leftwing supporters to beat Macron.

Attack on Identity

Terrorism can alter politics also by reshaping how people view themselves and the rest of society. Exposure to terrorism tends to increase support for extreme politics, according to a 2015 study.

For one, it increases hostility toward minorities. While this effect is strongest when people associate that minority with the attack, it can play out in other ways. People who endure terrorism “feel threatened and vulnerable”, the study found. This “psychological distress” makes them more likely to retreat to familiar in-groups and view outsiders as threats. This supports Le Pen’s narrative of a civilisational conflict along demographic lines.

Terrorism can also increase “popular support for non-democratic regulations and practices”, particularly those targeting minorities, the study found. Le Pen has promised to impose restrictions on Muslims and immigrants. THE NEW YORK TIMES