Baghdadi signals ISIS’ next move

IN HIS fiRST STATEMENT IN NEARLY A YEAR BAGHDADI ADDRESSED ‘SOLDIERS OF THE ISLAMIC STATE’ FAR BEYOND IRAQ AND SYRIA.

In the early hours of November 3, Islamic State’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, released his first statement in nearly a year – a defiant message that the group will not fade away quietly, even as Iraqi special forces breached the outskirts of Mosul, the last major city in Iraq under Islamic State’s control.

Baghdadi tried to project confidence that his jihadists would beat back the Iraqi government’s advance. “This total war and the great jihad that the Islamic State is fighting today only increases … our conviction that all of this is a prelude to victory,” he said in a 31-minute audio recording, his first since December.

But despite his bluster and attempt to boost morale for the fight in Mosul, Baghdadi’s message also signaled the latest transformation for Islamic State as it loses the core of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Two years ago, Baghdadi reveled in Islamic State’s quick expansion; he declared himself caliph and “leader of Muslims everywhere.” Today, under pressure from advancing ground forces and U.S.-led air strikes, Baghdadi is looking beyond the caliphate.

Baghdadi, whose long silence fueled speculation that he had been wounded or killed, urged his followers to “unleash the fire of their anger” on Turkey, which has been fighting Islamic State forces in Syria and has closed off key supply routes of weapons and reinforcements. He also instructed supporters to launch “attack after attack” in Saudi Arabia and target security forces and the ruling Al Saud family for “siding with the infidel nations in their war against Islam.”

Perhaps most importantly, Baghdadi addressed “soldiers of the Islamic State” far beyond Iraq and Syria. He specifically named Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Yemen, the Philippines, Somalia and West Africa. These are countries and regions where Islamic State has established “provinces” and affiliates – militant groups that include tens thousands of fighters who have pledged allegiance to Baghdadi and his organization. He referred to them as the “pillars of the caliphate,” a hint that these affiliates will now be more essential for Islamic State’s survival. He also urged sympathizers from the West who are unable to reach Iraq and Syria to travel instead to Libya, where the group has gained a foothold, especially in the coastal city of Sirte. But even there, Islamic State militants have suffered significant losses over the past six months. Despite these setbacks, Baghdadi’s group still has the ability to attract new recruits, raise funds, secure weapons and dispatch militants to carry out attacks in the West. As it loses territory and becomes weaker in Iraq and Syria, Islamic State will have less to lose by unleashing more terror around the world. Worried that jihadists will become more entrenched in Syria after they are pushed out of Mosul, U.S. military officials said last week that they hope to launch another ground offensive to oust the militants from their stronghold in the Syrian city of Raqqa. Pentagon officials say they fear that Islamic State operatives, including some who fled Mosul, are using Raqqa to plot new attacks against the West.

“There’s a sense of urgency about what we have to do here because we’re just not sure what they’re [Islamic State] up to, and where, and when,” Lt. General Stephen Townsend, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, said at a news conference from Baghdad on October 26. “But we know that this plot planning is emanating from Raqqa.”

The plan for an offensive on Raqqa is already alienating American allies, especially Turkey. U.S. officials say the group most likely to lead a ground assault on Raqqa would be the Syrian Democratic Forces, a coalition of U.S. and Western-allied rebel groups that is anchored by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which includes thousands of Syrian Kurdish fighters. Turkey, which has sent its own troops into Syria and supported some rebel factions to consolidate control of territory near the Turkish-Syrian border, views the YPG and other Syrian Kurdish groups as allies of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Since the 1980s, PKK rebels have waged an insurgency against the Turkish government in pursuit of autonomy for Kurdish areas. Turkey insists that Washington must not allow the YPG to take a leading role in ousting Islamic State from Raqqa.

U.S. military officials dismiss these concerns and insist that the best-trained fighters on the ground are from the YPG. “The only force that is capable on any near-term timeline is the Syrian Democratic Forces, of which the YPG are a significant portion,” Townsend said. “We’re going to take the force that we have and we will go to Raqqa soon with that force.”

Pentagon officials say their intelligence shows that Islamic State’s plotting in Raqqa is similar to plots and attack preparation that took place for nearly two years in the border town of Manbij, which was the last stop in Syria for jihadists on their way to Europe. The mastermind of the November 2015 attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people and were sanctioned by Islamic State’s leaders, reportedly spent considerable time and received training in Manbij. The jihadists were finally ousted from Manbij in August.

“Coming out of Manbij, we found links to individuals and plot streams to France, the United States, other European countries,” Townsend said, adding: “We know that this is going on in Raqqa as well.”

In his latest message, Baghdadi struck an almost apocalyptic tone in his appeal to fighters not to flee Mosul. “This war is yours,” he said. “Turn the dark night of the infidels into day, destroy their homes and make rivers of their blood.”

Soon, if the United States has its way, Baghdadi may make a similar appeal pleading with his fighters and supporters not to abandon Raqqa – and hasten the caliphate’s fall. REUTERS

The overall media coverage of the US presidential campaign has made it abundantly clear that Republican nominee Donald Trump was being targeted by several top journalists and news organisations in order to deliberately or inadvertently assist the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. The evident bias is likely to impact the credibility of newspapers as well as TV channels once the outcome of the fiercely contested election is known in the coming week. The manner in which Trump has been attacked throughout the campaign would also raise many questions about the values connected with objective reporting which unfortunately has not been the hallmark of the coverage by the press.

Many surveys have indicated that people were aware of this prejudice against Trump and therefore regardless of the result, journalists may have much to explain post 8 November. According to analysts, Hillary Clinton was being seen as a nominee of the establishment as also of the Wall Street backed media. Her entire campaign was being propped up to create an impression that it was going to be a walk-away victory for her and “the uncouth Trump who is unfit to be the President” would fizzle out and fade into oblivion. The last few days have shown that Trump, despite all his idiosyncratic and erratic behaviour, was not a pushover and had in fact gained a 1% lead over his rival in the race that has seen many ugly and unworthy of remembering moments.

The third and final debate between the two candidates witnessed TV anchors and media leaders come to a conclusion that Trump had categorically refused to accept the mandate and had alleged that the polls could be rigged. The inference was drawn in order to put Trump at a disadvantage in the eyes of the American people, while all that the Republican candidate in reply to a query by the moderator had stated was that he would like to keep the suspense alive. Earlier, during the debate he had raised questions over the fairness of the polls in relation to Hillary’s campaign. The newspaper headlines and TV coverage made it look like that the unconventional Trump had become the first nominee in the history of the US presidential polls who had charged that the elections were being rigged and was thus reluctant to accept the results.

The interesting matter is that on the same day, Indian newspapers reported the debate with a more objective headline as compared to the US where the bias became extremely glaring. The Indian media has often gone wrong and has been unfair on many occasions, but this time it is about the US polls and how journalists there have been doing their utmost to ensure that Hillary emerges as the victor.

On another point, polls in the US, like everywhere else, have also in the past been “rigged”. The outcome of the 1960 presidential election, where John Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon in a closely fought battle, had raised a number of questions regarding voting in Chicago and the way in which the Democrats benefited from this supposed manipulation. The American election system is not fool proof and certainly needs reforms in order to set an example for the rest of the democracies around the world. For common people both in the US and outside, the victory of George Bush ( Junior) over Al Gore in 2000 remains a mystery as it is difficult to adequately comprehend how popular votes could be trumped by electoral votes.

Well, this is something for the US authorities to figure out, but watching the campaign unfold, one both marvels at the stamina and resilience of the candidates and their supporters and to some degree the transparency which pits the two main contenders against each other in debates that are telecast live worldwide. It is something countries like India must take a leaf from this practice and prime ministerial faces of major parties should get an opportunity to question each other openly from a public platform to help the voters to make up their mind.

This year’s American elections have generated a lot of interest primarily because the White House could have for the first time a woman as the President. Simultaneously, a real estate tycoon with no political background and an unconventional-bordering-on-crass style of speaking has attracted a large number of US citizens, who are both concerned as well as wary of the growing threat from Islamic fundamentalists. Trump has promised to bring about major changes in the administrative set up and cleanse Washington DC of corrupt functionaries, who have developed a vested interest much above the interest of the nation.

Hillary is certainly the most qualified politician in the race for the Oval Office, but her past and certain indiscretions appear to be catching up with her. If elected, she may find herself in a piquant situation where her emails and the activities of the Clinton Foundation come under investigation by the FBI.

Following the final days of the campaign, one can conclude that if Hillary fails to win, then it shall be left to Michelle Obama, who has been evincing a pronounced interest in the political shenanigans to emerge as the next potential woman presidential nominee in the US. 8 November will see the collective wisdom of the American people prevail.