Regional parties are witnessing a dramatic churn
As regional parties eye the 2019 general elections, fiGHT FOR POLITICAL POWER HAS BECOME IMPORTANT.
far have demonstrated political maturity and astuteness. His father seems to be fighting a losing battle, since it is Akhilesh that the people want to see. His disdain for Amar Singh and his uncle strikes a chord with people, who are fed up of backroom movers and shakers who do not command a solid base in UP but are at best armchair politicians. Again, we see the same trend that we are witnessing in Bengal, for an internal family feud is being branded as a fight against the communal forces. Mayawati is also fighting communal forces in the country by allotting a record number of tickets to Muslims. For Mamata, Mayawati and Akhilesh know one thing very well: nothing unites them better than the fight against communal forces. It not only sounds better, it is bound to pay political dividends. The Congress better ally with these “secular” parties if it hopes to remain relevant to the electorate. The Congress could gain from their local level party organisation, which it completely lacks and provide a breather for those who are not yet ready to forgive the party for the UPA-II scams.
In the 1950s and 1960s, the Congress dominated the political system and the situation only changed in the early 1970s, with the split in the Congress in 1969 and the emergence of regional satraps who could challenge the Congress system. The regional players, whether it was muscle man Mulayum Singh Yadav, Kanshi Ram, Lalu Prasad Yadav, M. K. Karunanidhi and MGR or Sharad Pawar, to name a few, picked up regional issues, displayed an extreme opposition to the Congress system and captured their constituencies at a time when the Congress seemed to be weakening as a party organisation. The spurts of growth the Congress witnessed in the late 1970s and 1980s were due to the strong leadership of Indira Gandhi. That success was never replicated by either of her daughters-in-law.
Similarly, an ailing Karunanidhi, sensing an opportunity in the rapidly changing Tamil Nadu politics, has anointed his son Stalin to lead the party. This seems to be the best course to help Stalin consolidate himself and prevent an escalation of conflict between his two sons. The AIADMK is going to struggle in the post-Jayalalithaa scenario and Chinnamma Sasikala, her close confidant, lacks the fighting spirit of her predecessor or her political capital in Delhi. Undoubtedly, the power struggle at the regional level is important before the general elections of 2019.
If the elections in February 2017 are a dress rehearsal for May 2019, is too early to say. However, the importance of their outcome cannot be denied, primarily for the BJP. It is a crucial test for them to see if they have retained their vote share. If they slide downhill it would be enough for the opposition to cash in on the trend. This will not be a verdict on demonetisation alone; describing the outcome a result of just one factor is political naivety. It seems to be a fight for an alternative, a potent one.