Near future in cinema: Movies that are likely to win the Best Picture award at Oscars 2018

Film festival season kicks off with the one-two punch of Sundance and Cannes as Hollywood’s crème de la crème descend to introduce the next batch of films that’ll be caught up in awards fever as the 2017-18 season approaches. If these festivals are the gauge unveiling the future films to be part of this conversation, it’s September festivals such as TIFF and Venice that are tasked with assembling just who the major players will be at the Oscars in February.

Take The Beguiled, for instance - Sofia Coppola’s 19th-century American Civil War tale starring Nicole Kidman as the head of a girls school who takes in a wounded soldier (Colin Farrell). The adaptation was in contention for Cannes’ Best Picture equivalent, the Palme d’Or, with many automatically assuming it to be a nomination shoo-in. However, since the film’s release in July, awards chat has dwindled in favour of other emerging films that didn’t get shown on the French Riviera.

There are also the films whose calibre of talent naturally put them high as contenders until unprecedented negative festival reactions from hardened journalists throw their chances into question. TIFF’s case in point was Suburbicon. Directed by George Clooney, written by the Coen Brothers, starring Matt Damon and Julianne Moore, this patchwork of past Oscar glory sadly received a lukewarm response upon its early Friday morning screening all but eliminating its Oscar chances (I say “sadly” as I’m uncertain whether Suburbicon deserved such ire especially when other films of similar quality— Battle of the Sexes being one—received rave reviews. Still, if Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close can sneak in, Suburbicon can).

My point being the Best Picture contenders are a hell of a lot clearer than they were a fortnight ago. Below are the films that—going by their reaction at TIFF—won’t be sniffed at as awards season intensifies. In Call Me By Your Name, Luca Guadagnino has delivered a film increasingly looking like the one to beat. The drama, centred on a young man (Timothée Chalamet) and his burgeoning relationship with an academic named Oliver (Armie Hammer) in 1980s Italy, is whipping up a critical frenzy with Michael Stuhlbarg a strong Supporting Actor contender. New film Darkest Hour sees Joe Wright take on the “Winston Churchill biopic” challenge with aplomb toeing the line between entertaining and informative with a side order of Oscar-bait. Naturally, people are taking notice thanks to Gary Oldman’s truly unrecognisable transformation into the English Prime Minister—making him a Best Actor favourite—but don’t count Atonement director Wright’s film out as just another one-trick biopic pony. Only one of Christopher Nolan’s ten films have ever been nominated for Best Picture ( Inception) but a nod for World War II film Dunkirk has rather likely following its release in July. That the filmmaker was invited to TIFF for a special 70mm IMAX screening plus Q& A is proof that Warner Bros is backing the summer tentpole as its biggest awards contender—and it›s hard to see it being ignored. With no less than three TIFF press screenings for each film, journalists—schedules permitting —would have been able to see ev- erything they so desired. Lady Bird was the exception. Notch it down to excited word-of-mouth following its Venice premiere, but Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut, which stars Saoirse Ronan, saw the biggest queues of the festival setting it apart as Oscar season’s insect-sized dark horse. Every so often a film inveigles its way into the Best Picture category aided by a powerhouse performance at its heart ( Silver Linings Playbook and Dallas Buyers Club spring to mind). Step forward Molly’s Game, the directorial debut of Aaron Sorkin starring Jessica Chastain as Olympic skier-turnedunderground poker kingpin Molly Bloom. Her memorable performance would later hijack most TIFF conversations marking twotime nominee Chastain out as a frontrunner and injecting the film with unexpected awards gravitas. Mudbound provides Netflix with its first true Oscar contender having been sold at Sundance for $ 12.5 million. The film, directed with admirable command by Dee Rees, is an ensemble story of racial injustice set in post-WWII Mississippi starring the likes of Jason Clarke, Carey Mulligan, Mary J. Blige and Garrett Hedlund. A directing nomination for Rees would see her become the first female black woman to earn the feat. Those who hadn’t already taken notice of Guillermo del Toro’s majestic fantasy tale sat up immediately upon learning it had just won Venice’s Golden Lion—the festival’s biggest prize. Those already initiated with the film would have told you The Shape of Water is a wondrous often-gritty delight and the Mexican-American filmmaker’s best film since Pan’s Labyrinth which has thrown Sally Hawkins to the forefront of the already-exciting Best Actress race. The last time TIFF’s main award winner failed to earn a Best Picture nomination was in 2011 all but ensuring this black comedy’s place in the category. While Frances McDormand will receive most of the acclaim, her performance as Mildred Hayes—a woman who takes the law into her own hands— a downright showstopper, this is In Bruges director Martin McDonagh’s film, his screenplay so razor sharp you may draw blood.

Other contenders not shown at TIFF: Last Flag Flying (dir. Richard Linklater), The Post (dir. Steven Spielberg) and the new untitled film from Paul Thomas Anderson. THE INDEPENDENT