BJP CONFIDENT OBCs HAVE BLUNTED HARDIK FACTOR IN GUJARAT

Patidar consolidation against BJP may not have been uniform. While Hardik’s sub-caste, Kadwas have been more inclined towards Congress, the reverse has been the case with Leuvas.

Information coming from Gujarat suggests that there may have been a massive consolidation of OBC (Other Backward Classes) votes in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party, as a result of which, the adverse effects of the Patidar agitation on the ruling party may have been blunted to a large extent in the Assembly elections. This may be par- ticularly true in north Gujarat, the seat of the Patidar agitation, which went to the polls in the second phase of the elections on Thursday. This is what the BJP has been hoping for, and working towards to coast home safe and sound, especially after caste fissures came out in the open with the Congress’ backing of caste leaders such as Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani. Sources in Gujarat say that the BJP is so confi- dent that the OBC factor has worked well for it that it is already talking about having an OBC as Chief Minister of the state. Speculation is also rife that the state unit of the BJP may have already booked Ahmedabad’s Sardar Patel Stadium for its government’s oath taking ceremony on Christmas Day, 25 December, which is also the birthday of Atal Behari Vajpayee. Based on this OBC “swing”, at least one exit poll conducted by Va- dodara’s Centre for Culture and Development, which has been working in this area in successive elections, is predicting a 2/3 majority for BJP, with seats upward of 122 in the 182- seat Assembly. However, it must be mentioned that the Congress too believes that it will reach around 95-97 seats, which is a simple majority, piggybacking on Hardik Patel’s agitation for reservation for Patidars, and because of some serious anti-incum- bency the BJP is facing, especially in the rural areas.

The Patidars comprise around 14%-15% of Gujarat’s population, but have disproportionate influence because a large section of the community also generates employment. Traditional BJP voters, Patidars were tapped by the Congress with the help of Hardik Patel.

In comparison, the OBCs constitute around 40% of the state’s population, with 80-plus castes (in fact, much more than 100 because of additions to the OBC list). Gujarat is currently witnessing an undercurrent of rivalry for dominance between OBCs and Patidars. The OBCs are worried that Patidars getting reservation would cut into their share of quotas.

Anand Mavlankar, a retired professor of political science at Vadodara’s MS University, confirmed to this newspaper over phone that