The roadmap BJP needs to win Lok Sabha polls
BJP still has the edge and with some deft steps can regain the narrative.
Back to back bypoll losses in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all of which have BJP governments, failure to form government in Karnataka, and discontent among NDA allies such as Shiv Sena, Janata Dal United ( JDU) and Akali Dal have put the ruling Modi-Shah dispensation on the back-foot.
On the other hand, the “Opposition Unity Index” has been the talk of the larger part of Indian media. And hectic activity in the Congress camp to win friends among regional parties and at times play second or third fiddle to them is also being seen. Interesting is the CongressBSP tie-up evolving for MP and Rajasthan Assembly elections, even without BSP asking for it.
But BJP still has the edge and with some deft steps can regain the narrative. Here are my ten suggestions as to how BJP can win back India for a second term for Modi. ADVANCE LOK SABHA POLLS: Bring ahead the general elections from April-May 2019 to October-November 2018, by six months, and try to club 10 to 12 Assembly elections as well. This will deny the much-needed time for the Opposition unity to take shape, will block anti BJP sentiments from swelling further, with a possible debacle in either Rajasthan or MP, will prevent the Opposition parties from sinking their historical rivalry and also prevent them from raising material resources to fight the elections which they are extremely starved of just now, especially after demonetisation and loss of power in most states. A win in LS and around 10 Assemblies will make BJP central to Indian politics for a decade more, and Modi-Shah at the core of this. PATCH UP WITH ALLIES: A conscious change in the style of functioning of BJP president Amit Shah has to be seen and experienced ahead, especially in accommodating the aspirations, demands and justified expectations of the three important regional partners who still command reasonable support in the states: JDU in Bihar, Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab. Alongside, taking advantage of regional issues, BJP must strike partnerships with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh, apart from protecting its bonhomie with smaller parties in the Northeast and Bihar. LOOK AT PROS OF BYPOLL LOSSES: The BJP cadre must be taught to understand that the bypoll losses are not that bad, so that their morale is not down. One, there is no correlation between a party’s performance in byelections and Assembly or Lok Sabha elections. Bypoll turnouts are traditionally low and that seems to be the major factor in BJP’s losses in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. Also, caste-community and local candidate factors become less important when the mode of election becomes presidential and the strengths and weaknesses of local candidates are subsumed within those of the supreme leader. FIGHTING COMPLACENCY: BJP is less likely to suffer from complacency issues after the recent electoral reverses. If the Lok Sabha elections are advanced by six months, every shred of complacency within the cadre-based BJP shall be shed, while the amorphous Opposition will still be figuring out its formula to combat the onslaught of the BJP-RSS humongous political-electoral machinery, presumably the largest in the world. BJP’S CONTROL OF STATE GOVERNMENTS ABSOLUTE: BJP holds power either on its own or with alliance partners in 20 of India’s 29 states. When Na- rendra Modi took oath as Prime Minister, the BJP was in power in just seven states. Data shows when the elections are hyper-localised, the BJP has performed poorly, but when the canvas has become bigger, the saffron unit has invariably held an advantage. Today, the ruling party has far stronger control over the election machinery, state police and Central paramilitary forces, Intelligence Bureau and Central Bureau of Investigation, and a “disproportionate” influence on the Election Commission, etc., to “smoothen the rough edges” during a keenly contested poll. USURPING ELECTORAL NARRATIVE AND SETTING TONALITY OF CAMPAIGN: BJP has its own story of the achievements of 48 months of governance ready and in public domain with a dashboard of daily progress. On the other side, the alternative narrative, governance perspective, common minimum programme, and research to counter BJP’s claims are not ready with the Opposition. This is the time for BJP to strike the possible gold for the next five years. And it is possible to do with a narrative repeated constantly of an honest but strong-willed hard-working man versus a bunch of opportunists. For this reason, Modi’s incentive is to “Presidentialise” the Lok Sabha election on leadership while the Opposition’s objective is to localise it. CONSTITUENCY SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENT MANIFESTO: Alongside, also localise the election with constituency specific development manifesto to take the campaign to strike at the core of the usual strategy of regional parties. If the work done in each Constituency represented by a BJP MP today, and failures of other party MPs in other constituencies, added to the needs of each with specific plans for them are documented and put forth through its own social media and sections of the mainstream media, BJP can hit at the core of regional parties. RAM JANMABHOOMI VERDICT, BUT RIOTS AVOIDED: The verdict on Ram Janmabhoomi is due anytime and the ruling party will do itself a favour to take all possible steps to get a favourable Supreme Court position on this, which can lead to “stand vindicated” campaign by BJP, but carefully avoiding any full-scale riot. DEFINITIVE STEPS AGAINST TERROR AND ITS EXPORT: Terror on India-Pakistan border and skirmishes from the Pakistani side have been an ongoing story across the entire Modi rule, in spite of one round of surgical strikes across the borders. Another round of similar strikes and with some tangible visible results may serve bilateral and electoral purposes both. Alongside, if any possible action, from arrest to elimination can be done of India’s enemy number one, Dawood Ibrahim, even using Mossad of Israel, it will have an immense impact on a presidential form of elections ahead. CULTIVATING A MORE ACCESSIBLE IMAGE OF MODI: A 21st century leader cannot be remote. Hence, Prime Minister Modi, going beyond Mann Ki Baat and mygov.in, needs to be seen more accessible, addressing press, attending public functions, interacting with lobbies and groups, felicitating achievers in various fields, brainstorming with subject area experts and reaching out to public in general in mass meetings. Prof Ujjwal K. Chowdhury is currently the School Head, School of Media, Pearl Academy, Delhi and Mumbai. By hosting an iftar dinner at a five star hotel in the capital, Congress president Rahul Gandhi has unwittingly exposed the faultlines in the Opposition unity, while simultaneously assisting its principal adversary, the BJP to reiterate and emphasise its charge of Muslim appeasement. The iftar function held at the Taj Palace hotel in the Diplomatic Enclave, has in no manner, lent a hand to the Congress in reaping any kind of political dividends. Nor has it helped the grand old party to improve its networking amongst Muslims, since no prominent community leaders present on the occasion were in focus, with the spotlight primarily remaining on Pranab Mukherjee.
In fact, it appeared that the main objective of the iftar was to showcase the former President fresh from his return from the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Virtually for the whole day after the iftar party was announced, speculation was rife whether Pranab would be present at the venue or not. After he trooped in he was the cynosure of all eyes, and little attention was paid to either his predecessor Pratibha Patil or the erstwhile Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Similarly, Muslim leaders were in the backdrop and the entire purpose of hosting the party seemed purposeless since most felt that it would have been a better idea if the function had been held at the All India Congress Committee (AICC) office in place of the Taj Palace hotel. Interestingly, the Congress, over the past few years, had discontinued the iftar bonhomie after senior leader A.K. Antony had confirmed that the perception of the party having a pronounced tilt towards the minorities had contributed to its rout in the 2014 parliamentary polls.
It is precisely because of this reason the decision to mark the iftar ritual was interpreted in power circles as politically unviable since it has been more favourable towards BJP rather than providing the requisite boost to the Congress. Over the past several months, Rahul Gandhi had been working overtime to erase the impression of the pro-minority bias of his party by visiting various temples, thus declaring himself as a practising Hindu. Apparently, the dinner at the hotel proved counter-productive, making his pro-Hindu strategy appear both unconvincing and inadequate. The Congress president, somehow, has not comprehended, that the minority-Dalit obsession promoted during Sonia Gandhi’s tenure, has been not well-received by the masses. On the contrary, this political slant has not attracted either the Muslims or the Dalits to the party fold since they continue to exhibit preference for regional parties capable of defeating the BJP in various areas.
What is baffling in the entire issue is that why the Congress has gone out of its way to prove its secular credentials. Those who believe in the party’s ideology always presumed that it did not differentiate between people on the basis of religion. The Congress stood for all, and the political idiom of Indira Gandhi, its greatest mass leader, reflected the grammar. The former Prime Minister never ever singled out minorities for any preferential treatment and in her public appearances always made a strong case in favour of the weaker sections, which would include every section of society. The predicament is that the present leadership of the party has deviated from the Indira Gandhi brand of politics and has instead introduced its own caste and community centric equations which somehow do not seem to be working.
If in Sonia Gandhi’s period, the emphasis was on the minorities, Rahul’s advisers want him to pay greater attention to the OBCs, who, incidentally, have, by and large, never been inclined to vote for the Congress, given their pre-disposition towards regional parties, many of whom have their origins in the Socialist movement. The erstwhile Socialists, whose politics had its roots in anti Congressism, have excelled in wooing backward castes. Ram Manohar Lohia and Karpoori Thakur served as an inspiration for a whole generation of leaders such as Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and Nitish Kumar.
The Congress strength was in the universality of its appeal, and upper castes, particularly Brahmins, ensured in one way or the other that the OBCs did not gather together on a common platform. Charan Singh introduced his own cocktail of OBC, forward and minority politics when he successfully experimented with the Majgar (Muslim, Ahir, Jat, Gurjar and Rajput) formula in Uttar Pradesh to counter the Congress. However, the combination subsequently collapsed under the weight of its own inherent social contradictions.
The iftar dinner, hosted by Rahul Gandhi, brought in some harsh home truths as well. No major Opposition leader, barring Sitaram Yechury and Sharad Yadav, attended the function, though some of them like Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, H.D. Kumaraswamy and M.K. Stalin sent emissaries to mark their token presence. The outcome was that in the media narrative, the Congress appeared isolated, since out of the 18 parties that had been invited, only six or seven were represented.
What is imperative is that the Congress should realise that several Opposition parties are formulating a strategy which would diminish its role in the proposed Mahagathbandan (Grand Alliance). Therefore, on one hand it has to keep its relevance intact, while on the other hand, the Congress has to ensure that the BJP does not take advantage of either its limitations or its ill-conceived proposals. This is one iftar party that would go down in history as where the Congress provided an upper hand to the BJP. Between us.