Cong sounds poll bugle in 12 u.p. seats after sp, bsp’s snub
SP and BSP have offered only a paltry five-seat deal to the Congress out of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats.
It is a virtual show down between the state administration and the political parties in Jammu and Kashmir. While the state administration is adamant to hold Panchayat and local body elections in the coming months of October to December, most of the political parties including National Conference and People’s Democratic Party have decided not to participate in these polls.
The state administration has already instructed the J&K Police to beef up security and prepare for elections in the entire state. Reports said that new Governor Satya Pal Malik is likely to consult all the political parties in J&K for holding elections before going ahead with the administrative decision of the state’s chief secretary. Reports from the state civil secretariat said that the chief secretary has already given instructions for issuing notification for the urban local bodies’ elections in the state.
The chief electoral officer (CEO) of the state, Shaleen Kabra said that notification would be issued for holding of the municipal polls shortly on the instructions of the government.
NC president Farooq Abdullah has said that they will boycott these elections unless the Central and the state government will clear their stand on Article 35(A).
The PDP has already indicated that they will follow suit. Party President Mehbooba Mufti has said that people have genuine fears that the government will fiddle with this Article after the local elections.
The Congress has prepared a list of 12 “non-negotiable” seats in Uttar Pradesh and sent word to Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati that their offer of a peripheral space in a prospective grand alliance against the BJP is not acceptable to it, sources told The Sunday Guardian.
According to top sources in the UP Congress Committee, the party has begun preparing for elections in Varanasi, Kanpur, Moradabad, Maharajganj, Sultanpur, Allahabad, Pratapgarh, Kushinagar, Firozabad and Mirzapur apart from Amethi and Raebareli, Gandhi family pocket boroughs that are represented by party president Rahul Gandhi and his mother Sonia Gandhi, respectively.
The sources said that the party high command is close to finalising candidates in these 12 constituencies and unless the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party show flexibility in terms of seat sharing, it would contest all of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats alone.
Most of these seats, said sources and some local reporters, have a sizeable Muslim population and if the Congress contests against a BSP or SP candidate, the division of the minority votes would immensely benefit the BJP, which rules the state and has currently 71 MPs.
A source in the AICC, who spoke to this reporter, said that the party high command is “upset” with Akhilesh and Mayawati’s attitude in back- channel seat-sharing talks that have been held so far.
“Both Akhilesh and Mayawati have been pressuring the Congress to accept a five seats’ deal. Barring 2014, we have been winning nearly 10 seats and finishing a close second in another 10 seats. In 2009, we won 21 seats. Why would we accept only five seats?” a UP Congress Committee member, who was part of the delegation that recently met SP and BSP representatives for seat sharing talks, told this newspaper.
This UP Congress leader further said that the SP and BSP have in the recent time adopted a belligerent note against the Congress, hinting that they would field strong candidates in Amethi and Raebareli and spoil the Gandhis’ chances in their own constituencies, which the BJP is trying hard to win.
“The SP and BSP have been indicating that we cannot even win Amethi and Raebareli on our own, and if we do not agree to a five seats offer in the grand alliance, they would make our position untenable in these two constituencies,” the source told this reporter.
But the high command is confident that it would sail through in Amethi, not giving much weight to the fact that BJP’s Smriti Irani had reduced Rahul Gandhi’s winning margin from 3.7 lakh votes in 2009 to 1.07 lakh in 2014, and that the Congress has since lost all four Assembly seats in Amethi.
The Congress believes that by cementing its base amongst the Brahmins and Muslims, it can comfortably win the 12 seats it has identified.
The party also feels that its absence from the grand alliance would hurt the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party more than it would hurt it.
“Our position is strong in 12 seats. We may win eight to 10 of them riding on the Muslim-Brahmin factor. It is the SP and BSP that would be humbled in most constituencies if the Opposition is divided,” said an AICC source, confirming that the Congress may go-italone in the state.
Meanwhile, in neighbouring Bihar, the Congress’ state leaders are getting impatient over the long delay in appointing a Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee president. Sources said that the cadre is demoralised.
“The cadre doesn’t know who hold the reins in the state. We don’t know how many seats we may get to contest. We don’t know in which regions we should start work. Our cadre is disillusioned and so are we,” said a BPCC leader, adding that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United has been trying to poach its influential MLAs and the confusion within the Congress rank is working to its advantage. The AICC has recently deputed four secretaries to the state—Kishori Lal Sharma, Virendra Singh Rathore, Rajesh Lilothia and Alpesh Thakor. Earlier, Gujarat based leader Shaktisinh Gohil was made the election in-charge. The post of the BPCC president has been vacant for over a year. Kaukab Quadri is serving as the acting chief. Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao is confident of improving his tally to 100 seats in the 119-member state Assembly with his master-stroke of early elections, which caught the principal Opposition party, Congress, unaware.
To add to the Opposition camp’s bafflement, he has also announced TRS candidates for 105 seats. He has told the BJP’s top brass that his re-election in Telangana would help stop the Congress’ revival in the state in the Lok Sabha elections.
KCR’s plans to go for advanced elections for Telangana Legislative Assembly were speculated over in the last two months, but gained momentum after he met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on 25 August. At a massive rally at Kongara Kalan, on the city outskirts on 2 September, he told the gathering that he would take a decision on early elections “in the best interests of the people of the state”. On Thursday, at a Cabinet meeting held at his official residence, “Pragathi Bhavan” in Begumpet, he moved a single line resolution dissolving the Assembly and all the ministers endorsed it. Telangana Assembly’s term was till May 2019.
Governor E.S.L. Narasimhan signed the acceptance letter of the Cabinet resolution and notified the same within minutes in the presence of the CM at Raj Bhavan. Usually, the Governors take at least a few hours to take a decision regarding the dissolution of an Assembly. Narasimhan not only notified the dissolution of the House instantly, he also sent a communication to the Assembly speaker and the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) immediately. CEO Rajath Kumar too sent a communication to the Election Commission of India (EC) by evening. As a result, the EC was informed about Telangana developments by the time it met for its regular meeting on Friday.
KCR said it was the opposition Congress’ “vicious campaign” against him and his government over the last few months that prompted his decision to go for early elections. He said that he wanted to seek people’s mandate afresh so that he can carry on with his developmental agenda. “I am 100% confident that I will come back to power once again,” said KCR.
KCR’s decision to opt for early elections appears to be based on four major reasons. First, he wants to avoid giving enough space and scope to Congress to regain Telangana. KCR is afraid that Congress coming to power or improving in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh might boost the morale of the party in Telangana, too. Second, he is sceptical that if the state Assembly polls are clubbed with those of Lok Sabha, naturally the national issues would dominate the poll agenda and his perceived closeness to the PM in the last few months might be viewed as a pro-BJP line and this might alienate his support base among the Muslims in the state.
Third, an oppressive summer heat and possible shortage of drinking water and power in April and May might affect his prospects and December polls are always better in view of this year’s bountiful rains and good agricultural season. KCR has promised to complete some of his flagship schemes like Mission Bhagiratha (drinking water to all households) before April/May 2019. But this as well as some other schemes are still underway and he might find it difficult to seek votes next year, without their completion. Fourth, KCR’s government would be distributing second the instalment of agricultural invest subsidy at the rate of Rs 4,000 per acre to around 50 lakh farmers by October. If farmers receive the money in October, they may be supporting the ruling party. This subsidy is given to them twice a year, in May and in October. But if he goes to polls next summer, the government might not be doling out the money to farmers before elections and the farmers’ may not support TRS. The Opposition camp is divided and underprepared. Congress is frantic and eagerly waiting for the return of its president Rahul Gandhi from Kailash Manasarovar Yatra on 12 September. The TDP, though a marginal force in Telangana, is desperate to go for seat adjustments with Congress to take on KCR.
The BJP is going it alone and its national president Amit Shah will be visiting the state next week from 13 to 14 September. The CPM is heading rag-tag of some smaller parties and planning to contest all the 119 seats under the banner of Bahujan-Left Front. The CPM is knocking at the doors of the Congress for a seat sharing deal, and Prof Kodandaram led Telangana Jana Samithi is toying the idea of aligning with Congress.